There are hundreds of bets you can place on football and that is before we get to things like accas and bet builders. No other sport comes close to the range of markets offered on the beautiful game but, let’s face it, most of us still stick to a handful of our favourites. For most punters that means the classics – match odds, both teams to score, correct score and a few others.
Of those other popular wagers, over/under 2.5 goals is one of the simplest to understand. Even so, if you are new to betting, or just a football-betting newbie, there are a few things that may need explaining. In this article, we will look more closely at under/under 2.5 goals and explain how it works. We will also look at some key stats, example odds, betting strategies and any rules you might need to be aware of.
What is Over/Under 2.5 Goals in Football?
In this market you are simply betting on whether you think the game will witness zero, one, or two goals, or – alternatively – three or more goals. If the match sees under 2.5 goals, in other words two or fewer, bets on under will win; in contrast, should the game have at least three goals in total, be that three, four, five or nine, wagers on over will win.
Because games historically see somewhere between two and three goals on average, over or under 2.5 is the standard “line” offered. However, all bookies typically offer alternative lines where you can bet on over/under 0.5 goals, 1.5, 3.5, 4.5 and often higher.
All goals scored in normal time, which is to say 90 minutes plus injury time but not extra time or penalties, count. As such, any score from either 2-1 or 3-0 to either team and upwards counts as a win for overs. Three own goals in second-half stoppage time are as good as a trio of world-class screamers in the first half. Likewise, if you back unders it doesn’t matter if the match is 0-0 and there isn’t a shot on target the whole game, or it’s a 1-1 or 2-0 thriller in which both sides hit the woodwork four times each.
Why is it 2.5 Goals, Not 2?
One thing that can confuse those unfamiliar with similar football betting markets is the use of the half a goal. Why is the bet over 2.5 goals and not, for example, over two goals? This is just the simplest way of avoiding any doubt and also avoiding the possibility of a tie. If the market was over or under two goals, what would happen in a game where exactly two were scored?
The market could be detailed as “three goals or over/two goals or under” but this is wordier. As such, using half goals and just having over/under 2.5 goals is a quick, simple way of making it as clear as possible what a punter is betting on.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals Stats
When deciding whether you think a game will have over or under the all-important 2.5 mark, relying on statistics is a very good starting point. As we will explain when looking at tips and strategy, it is far from the only thing. Each and every game must be considered as an individual entity. However, stats and overall trends are a great place to begin your assessment and it certainly pays to understand just how common – or not – over (or under) 2.5 goals in a match is.
The numbers with regards this market change over time and vary between leagues and competitions. However, as the Premier League is probably where many punters make most of their bets, let us look at that. The chart below shows what percentage of games ended with first under 2.5 goals, and second over 2.5. We have included data for the last 10 complete seasons.
As we can see, in very general terms it is close to a 50/50 bet. Overs has the edge overall and more games saw at least three goals in eight out of the last 10 Premier League seasons. However, in 2020/21 and 2014/15 it was under 2.5 goals that was the winning bet more frequently. The biggest difference between the frequency of overs and unders (either way) occurred in 2012/13 when just over 44% of clashes witnessed under 2.5 goals and not far shy of 56% had over. That is a sizeable difference but even then it is not varying too far away from being a flip-of-a-coin sort of wager.
Within the Premier League there is huge variance between teams though. For example, if we look at the 2021/22 campaign, 61% of Man City’s games saw over 2.5 goals with just 39% being low-scoring affairs. At the Etihad, where City were even more free-scoring, that overs figure jumps to 68%. Leeds United (66%) and Leicester (63%), as well as Liverpool (63%) were even more kings of over 2.5 goals than City.
In contrast, that same year saw a mere 37% of games involving Wolves feature three or more goals. And if you had focussed solely on their away games, you would have hit a winning bet with unders almost three quarters of the time, with only 26% of their Premier League fixtures away from home witnessing three or more goals. Burnley also had an overs hit-rate of 37% whilst just 34% of Brighton’s games ended with three or more goals, the lowest percentage in the PL.
Example Odds
In 2021/22 the Premier League’s 380 games yielded 1,071 goals in total, an average of 2.82 per match and that sort of figure – between around 2.5 and 2.8, is very common. Due to the fact that most games across most leagues average somewhere around the 2.5 goal mark, many matches have a broadly 50% chance of being both over 2.5 or under 2.5.
The chart for the last decade of Premier League games bears that out, and the picture is the same in earlier years of the PL as well as in other major leagues around the world. So logically we would expect to find odds somewhere around evens for both overs and unders in most games. Indeed, this is part of the appeal of betting on over or under 2.5 goals – the fact that both options tend to have a decent chance of success whilst also offering odds that are not disconcertingly low.
Of course, the bookies themselves take a cut and so in a game where they believe there really is a 50/50 chance of each outcome, the odds would be lower than evens. Depending on the game, match and other factors, this might range from 10/11, or a shade better, down to around 4/5. However, to give you an idea of what odds you can expect in this market, we have selected a few games to look at:
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Over 2.5 Goals | Under 2.5 Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17/20 | 5/2 | 3/1 | 19/20 | 17/20 |
| 2 | 23/20 | 23/10 | 9/4 | 17/20 | 19/20 |
| 3 | 7/10 | 14/5 | 7/2 | 3/5 | 13/10 |
| 4 | 6/5 | 12/5 | 21/10 | 4/5 | Evens |
As we can see, there is not a huge variation in the odds and so in general the over/under 2.5 goals market is a good shout if you are looking for a bet with odds somewhere either side of even money. This also makes this market a very popular choice for accas as the odds can quickly add up despite the bets having a decent chance of being successful.
For example, a £10 acca on all four games above to see three or more goals (which is to say a fourfold over 2.5 goals bets), would return a very tidy £103.90.
Rules to Look Out For
As we have said a number of times this is a simple market and the fact it is so easy to understand is part of what makes it so popular. The only thing to really be aware of is, that in common with most football markets, it applies to 90 minutes (plus injury time) only. In league games this is irrelevant as there is no extra time or penalties.
However, in cup matches it is crucial to understand that a game that finishes 1-1 after normal time, and then 5-5 after extra time, and then 17-16 after penalties will be settled as a win for under 2.5 goals. Only the two goals scored in 90 minutes are counted.
Aside from that punters just need to make sure they pick the right option. It is very easy to select overs when you mean unders and vice versa, especially if the odds for both are similar, as is common. Some betting sites may display the market differently, so just ensure you are backing the selection you intend to before confirming.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betting Strategy
As with all markets and all betting, two things are crucial: research and value. The former allows you to uncover the latter and the latter is the only way you can hope to beat the bookies in the long term. If you are attempting to bet on a professional or semi-pro level, that research needs to be incredibly thorough, because almost everything obvious and superficial has already been factored into the odds.
As such, very rudimentary analysis that both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in their last six games won’t cut it. The bookies know this and so the chances are that the odds for over 2.5 goals are low. Yes, the bet might well win, but unless the odds offer value, such a bet will lose enough times out of 100 to leave you further down overall.
Of course most punters are not trying to make a living and are instead betting for fun. Even so, winning is important, and so factors to consider include:
- Defence and attack stats: games between two great attacking teams who are both weak at the back may be ripe for an overs bet
- Evenly matched sides are more likely to produce games with under 2.5 goals
- Very one-sided matches have a greater chance of overs, hence why Man City have tended to be a popular option for those backing over 2.5 goals
- Injuries, particularly to goalkeepers, defenders and strikers
- Motivation – does a 0-0 draw keep both teams up or does one team need to win desperately? If a draw is acceptable to both, unders may be a good bet but if one or both sides need to win then backing overs could be wise
- Pressure – tight, tense games with a lot at stake are often low-scoring. Matches where the pressure is off, for example the last day of the season with nothing to play for, may be goalfests