European Championship (Euros) Betting Tips

The Euros, or to use their full name, the UEFA European Championship, is an international men’s football tournament held every four years and contested by the 55 (correct as of December 2018) members of UEFA. The Union of European Football Associations sanctions and organises this continental tournament and it takes place in even numbered years between the FIFA (Federation Internationale de Football Association) World Cup.

That’s the very basic information but we’ve got lots more detail on this great event which effectively crowns the best international football team in Europe. We are first and foremost a betting site, so we have of course compiled a guide to betting on the Euros, but we have also got information on the history of the event, its structure, how qualification works and some fun facts and stats. Fun is, well, kind of fun, so let’s start there!

Euro 2020 Qualifying Matches – 6th to 10th September 2019

Date Time Channel Match Tip
6/09/19 19:45 Sky Sports Germany v Netherlands Germany Win
6/09/19 19:45 Sky Sports Scotland v Russia Scotland Double Chance
6/09/19 19:45 Sky Sports Wales v Azerbaijan Wales and Under 2.5 Goals
7/09/19 17:00 ITV England v Bulgaria England 3-0
7/09/19 19:45 Sky Sports Serbia v Portugal Portugal to Win
8/09/19 19:45 Sky Sports Sweden v Norway Sweden and BTTS
9/09/19 19:45 Sky Sports Northern Ireland v Germany Germany to win by one goal
9/09/19 19:45 Sky Sports Scotland v Belgium Belgium to win by two goals
10/09/19 19:45 ITV England v Kosovo Harry Kane to score two or more

The football has only just returned across Europe and already we’re having a break for international football. This really annoys fans who aren’t overly enamoured with seeing their country play against often lesser opposition and who prefer club football. None the less, we have a nice tranche of football up ahead and plenty to bet on, with games taking place every day for almost a week.

England face a home double-header against Bulgaria and Kosovo, which should mean six point for the Three Lions, whilst there are matches for the other home nations as well. Gareth Southgate’s men will look to take a real hold of Group A and we have two interesting games featuring Germany, plus what already look like must-win clashes for Wales and Scotland.

Easy Wins for the Three Lions

Wembley Stadium Bobby Moore Entrance

By Karen Roe, flickr

Thanks to the Nations League exploits England are already assured of at least a play-off place for Euro 2020 but they will fully expect to top the group and avoid any extra games. They could well run away with the group having already thrashed their most likely rivals 5-0 and having also banged in five in their only away test to date.

In this round of fixtures they play at Wembley twice; first on Saturday against Bulgaria and then on Tuesday against Kosovo, the newest member of UEFA. The home side are heavy odds-on favourites for both games and it is very difficult to see them slipping up against nations ranked 60th and 120th in the world respectively.

Bulgaria have had some great players over the years, most notably in the late 1980s and 1990s when their “Golden Generation” finished third at the 1994 World Cup in the USA. Things are very different now though, with most of their squad playing football in Bulgaria and virtually nobody featuring in Europe’s big five leagues.

Southgate’s men are priced at odds of just 1/12 to claim the victory here though so few will be backing them: even adding them to an acca hardly seems worthwhile despite the fact they look like bankers. The draw can be backed at double-digit odds whilst such is the buoyant mood around the Three Lions these days, Bulgaria are priced at odds as big as 38/1 for those that shop around and no shorter than 20/1 anywhere!

Based on their free-scoring form thus far in the group and the fact that Bulgaria conceded three at home against Kosovo and are bottom of the group, we have to fancy a big home win. The visitors will try their best to keep things tight and will hope to somehow grab a draw so it might not be as comprehensive a win as some are predicting. As such we like the look of England to win 3-0 here, available at odds of 4/1.

They should then look to build on that win and make it four wins out of four when Kosovo visit Wembley at the start of next week. Once again the hosts will be prohibitively short so the question is how best to profit. The minnows are unbeaten in three at the time of writing and will have played Czech Republic before this. Prior to that clash they beat Bulgaria, as mentioned, and drew 1-1 at Montenegro and at home against the Bulgarians.

They will fight for every ball and have thus far proven themselves a decent side on the road. Playing England represents a real step up in class though and we see another relatively easy win for the Three Lions. Harry Kane has a superb record for England and against a physical side like Kosovo he may well find himself getting the chance to take a penalty. We like the look of Kane to score a couple (or more) here and so that’s our tip for this one.

Germans to Assert Themselves in Group C

Hamburg Volksparkstadion

By Kim Holger Kelting, Wikimedia Commons

Germany have been going through a crisis by their high standards over the past few years. They are down to 15th in the world rankings and indeed are only rated the ninth best team in Europe! However, there are signs of late that they are improving and a home game against Netherlands gives them a good chance to show they are on the up.

Group C looks highly competitive, with Northern Ireland leading the way with four wins from four. Their fixtures have been planned to garner momentum though and having played both Estonia and Belarus twice they now have four tough games to come. Germany have won three out of three and we fancy them to have more than enough on home soil to see off the improving Dutch. The home win is superb value at 19/20 and so that is our very simple tip for this one.

Germany’s next clash may well decide who tops the group as they travel to Belfast on Monday. Assuming they beat Netherlands, a win over Northern Ireland will see them take control of the group and we fully expect them to avoid a slip-up. Norn Iron fans will be thrilled and excited to have maximum points thus far but they know the real test starts now.

To put Northern Ireland’s results into perspective, they beat Estonia 2-0 at home and 2-1 away whilst Die Mannschaft hammered them 8-0 in Germany. That said, the hosts will know that a draw would be a solid result for them and they are very rarely outclassed, especially at home.

In 2018 World Cup qualification Germany were again paired with Michael O’Neill’s men and they won each of the two games by a two-goal margin. We fancy this one can be a little closer and so our tip here is for Germany to win by exactly one goal, available at nice odds.

Wales to See off Whipping Boys

Cardiff City Stadium

By Daicaregos, Wikimedia Commons

Wales head into this round of fixtures with a lot of work to do and they have just the one game, one they really have to win. At present they are only above Azerbaijan in Group E and that is who they welcome to Cardiff on Friday. They are priced at odds of 2/7 to get the win with the visitors way out at 12s.

Wales are far stronger at home and having beaten Slovakia on home soil they can certainly get the better of a poor Azerbaijan who look certain to claim the wooden spoon. That said, they rarely score too many goals and so a tight win looks the order of the day. They beat the Slovaks 1-0 and their three games thus far have seen a total of just five goals. The home win and under 2.5 goals looks like an excellent way to boost your returns on the Wales win and at odds of 11/10 we think it is great value too.

  • Scotland v Russia - Scotland, like Wales, have started their Euro 2020 qualifying campaign slowly. Thanks to a decent Nations League performance they know they have a play-off spot in the bag but can they possibly claw themselves into the top two? If they are to have any chance at all then they have to beat key rivals Russia and on home soil we feel they have a chance. Play it safe though and back Steve Clarke’s men on the double chance market instead. Scotland or the draw is priced at 4/9 and that looks a safe bet to us.
  • Serbia v Portugal - Perhaps the biggest game of Saturday for neutrals takes place in Group B between teams currently well off the pace being set by Ukraine at the top of the table. This could well prove vital in the race to finish second and being such a big clash we expect Cristiano Ronaldo to rise to the occasion. The defending champions can claim a big away win here to avenge their home draw and odds of 23/20 look more than fair.
  • Sweden v Norway - We have a potentially vital all-Scandinavian clash in Group F as Norway head to Sweden. The Swedes are currently second behind Spain but Romania and Norway are very much in the hunt. In front of their own fans Janne Andersson’s men will expect to win and they are worthy favourites. Prior to this one both sides should record easy wins against the Faroes and Malta respectively so with confidence among their forwards high, we like the look of Sweden and BTTS here.
  • Scotland v Belgium - As said, the Scots may already be playing for second place in the group but assuming they can get something against Russia they will come into this game in confident mood. Belgium are big favourites and are the world’s number one-ranked side, ahead of France and Brazil. But they have a few injuries to contend with and whilst their squad has depth we don’t expect to see them at their best. On home soil Scotland should be able to frustrate them for long periods but ultimately the class of the visitors should tell. Check out Roberto Martinez’s men to win by exactly two goals, as they have in three of their last six clashes.

Betting on the Euros: Strategy & Tips

The Euros is one of the major betting events on the sporting calendar, with punters and bookies going wild on the football betting feast offered up by the tournament. Given that football is the number one betting sport in the world and many of the planet’s biggest regulated markets are within Europe, this should come as no surprise.

Qualifying itself sees lots of money wagered but things really hot up every four years for the finals. Each market is covered in great depth by all the best betting sites, with literally hundreds of markets available on every game, plus a massive range of specials on teams, players and indeed the entire tournament.

As with all of our various tournament and event betting guides, much of the strategic foundation for your bets can be found within our more generic football betting strategy guide. As we will probably never tire of saying, the key to making a profit from sports betting and therefore football betting, is finding the value. Usually the way to try and do that is to study as much information, news and data as you possibly can but given the bookies are doing that too, it isn’t easy.

Considering past stats, trends and results is a reasonable start when it comes to picking out your bets. However, you simply have to remember that more often than not, the bookies’ odds reflective such widely and publically available information. However, if you can spot something the bookies or the markets have missed, or perhaps see an emerging trend early, there is just perhaps a chance you will be able to grab some great value before the bookies and your fellow punters get up to speed.

All that said, here are one or two Euros-specific factors we think are worth your consideration as you try to develop your own betting strategies.

Back Germany, France or Spain

This might not qualify as the most sophisticated betting strategy around but backing one – or more – of the continental big guns may be a profitable move. Since the Euros moved to eight or more teams in 1980, these three nations have each triumphed on two occasions. We discount the pre-1980 tournaments because with just four nations they are not really anything like the modern tournament.

Since the Championship expanded to eight, then 16 and then 24 teams, the big hitters have won six out of 10 editions, an impressive strike rate. With a further four final appearances between them that really is impressive stuff.

That said, lumping on the favourite hasn’t always been a shrewd move and we have certainly had some huge upsets at the Euros. In 1992 Denmark only stepped in as late replacements for Yugoslavia but defied the odds to go all the way and eventually take Euros glory. They had just a week to prepare for the tournament and began at odds of 20/1 – huge odds with just eight teams involved.

In 2004 Greece caused an even bigger surprise when they won the tournament in Portugal at a whopping 150/1. Last but not least, Portugal themselves, despite being able to field Cristiano Ronaldo, were 20/1 shots in 2016. So, whilst the big guns are the obvious choice for the outright winner market, they are far from the only option.

Rule Changes

Slightly different rules, or interpretations of them, or the use of new technology, can have a big impact on major tournaments such as the Euros. At the 2018 World Cup we saw the introduction of VAR, and a crackdown on penalty area grappling led to a huge increase in the number of penalties and set piece goals. This created lots of opportunities to cash in for those that foresaw this pre-tournament, or even those who spotted the new trends early on in Russia.

Major tournaments regularly introduce tweaks or utilise different technology for the first time and this can have an impact on various factors including the number of goals, penalties and bookings.

UEFA Technical Report

For each Euros, as well as each edition of the Champions League and other UEFA tournaments, European football’s governing body produces a technical report. This highlights changing trends in terms of goals, styles, approach and any developments in the game that were witnessed at the competition in question. FIFA also produces a report on the World Cup and this data, which includes information such as goalscoring analysis and team profiles, can often be used to uncover developing trends and changes which may just give you the edge.

How do you Qualify for the Euros?

As with all tournaments and competitions that have been around for a long time, the format of both qualification and the finals has changed many times. At the time of writing (late 2018) we are currently in the middle of one of the biggest changes to the qualification process we have ever seen, whilst the 2020 Euros will also be ground breaking.

Here we will look at the 2020 tournament, with a little info on past European Championships below. In terms of the qualification process, we have covered many of the latest changes in our feature on the Nations League, so we won’t repeat that here in quite the same detail.

However, in short, the European Championship for 2020 has two qualifying routes, with the bulk of places on offer through a standard process. A total of 20 teams will book their spots at Euro 2020 through the main qualifying process, with a further four places on offer through the Nations League.

The 55 UEFA members will be whittled down to 24 teams and the draw for the main group phase of proceeding s was made in Dublin on 2nd December 2018. This created 10 groups from A to J, with groups A to E featuring five teams and Groups F to J containing six nations. The top two nations in each group will qualify for the finals and seedings based on the inaugural Nations League group phase were used to ensure that the top four Nations League teams were in a group of just five.

The final four places are decided by a play-off process. Normally such play-offs have involved teams that were “best losers” from the group phase but the 2020 Euros is using the Nations League instead. As said, you can read all about how this will work in our Nations League feature.

In summary though, each of the four leagues of the Nations League will have one place on offer for the Euros, with each tier’s top four teams facing play-offs to determine who will win it. Sides already qualified won’t be eligible and the play-offs will take place at the end of March 2019, featuring two single-game semis and a final.

Structure of the Tournament

As said, it is not just the qualification procedure that has seen a major overhaul for 2020. The finals themselves will be the first ever not to have a fixed, single (or shared) host and instead will be a pan-European affair spread over 12 venues in 12 different countries and taking place from the 12th June 2020 to the 12th July.

Then-UEFA President, Michel Platini, said this format would be a one-off and is designed as a romantic celebration for the 60th anniversary of the competition. Indeed, Germany will be the sole host for 2024 but 12 nations will see games in 2020, with the host cities and countries listed below.

  • England – Wembley Stadium, London
  • Germany – Allianz Arena, Munich
  • Italy – Stadio Olimpico, Rome
  • Azerbaijan – Olympic Stadium, Baku
  • Russia – Krestovsky Stadium, Saint Petersburg
  • Hungary – Puskás Aréna, Budapest
  • Romania – Arena Națională, Bucharest
  • Netherlands – Johan Cruyff Arena, Amsterdam
  • Spain – San Mamés, Bilbao
  • Scotland – Hampden Park, Glasgow
  • Ireland – Aviva Stadium, Dublin
  • Denmark – Parken Stadium, Copenhagen

Wembley will play host to both semi finals and the final, as well as a last 16 tie and three group games. Munich, Baku, Saint Petersburg and Rome will host the quarters and three group games, with the remaining venues hosting a round of 16 games as well as a trio of group clashes.

The draw for the 24-team event will be held in December 2019, with seedings used, and will see six groups of four teams created. Within each group, from A to F, nations will play each other once, with the top two from each group plus four best-placed third teams making the last 16.

From the last 16 onwards the tournament will follow a standard knockout format, with those topping their group having the advantage of playing sides who finished second or third.

Prize Money

There is considerable prize money available to the federations of the teams at Euro 2020. Just for making the finals, nations will earn a tidy €9.25m, whilst each win in the group phase will add €1.5m to a country’s fund. Progressing further into the competition increases the money nations will earn, with the winner taking an additional €10m. If the overall winner of Euro 2020 was to win every game they played they would take home a massive windfall of €34m.

History of the UEFA European Championships

The UEFA European Nations’ Cup, as it was known until 1968, was first held in 1960, in France and saw just four teams take part. In the 1950s and 1960s there were a number of initiatives, events and bodies established as the world and in particular Europe sort to avoid a repeat of the two World Wars.

The Euros was in many ways part of that, although in actual fact the idea of a European international competition had first been mentioned back in 1927. Henri Delaunay, a French football administrator, fought hard to bring the new competition about but sadly he died before the first staging of the event he envisioned.

Talks between the French Football Federation and other governing bodies moved very slowly and it wasn’t until 1958 that the concept was agreed. Delaunay died in November 1955 but the trophy for the winners of the Euros is named in his honour and was first awarded to the Soviet Union in 1960.

As said, just four nations participated in 1960, with hosts France, victors the USSR and Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia completing the line-up. Only 17 nations took part (from qualifying onwards) but four years later many more countries saw the worth in the competition.

A total of 29 nations entered qualifying for Spain 1964, with West Germany the biggest to decide against taking part. Again just four teams took part, with hosts Spain ultimately denying the Soviet Union another triumph.

Over the years the tournament steadily expanded, with various tweaks and changes along the way. It wasn’t until 1980 that the finals expanded to include eight teams though, that moving to 16 for England’s Euro 96, when football almost came home but was yet again thwarted by penalties and Germans!

As various countries across the continent have split up, qualifying has become a bigger and bigger affair. There are now 55 UEFA members, Kosovo joining the football fiesta in 2016 and the 2016 Euros saw a further expansion to 24 teams. That total is agreed at least as far as 2024 but who knows, further growth could happen before too long.

Recent Winners

Ahead of the 2020 tournament there have been a total of 15 previous competitions and 10 different nations have won (counting West Germany and Germany as one nation). Two no longer extant nations, Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia, have won the Euros more times than England, whilst Yugoslavia, a third, have made more appearances in the final than the Three Lions!

  • 1960 – Soviet Union
  • 1964 – Spain
  • 1968 – Italy
  • 1972 – West Germany
  • 1976 – Czechoslovakia
  • 1980 – West Germany
  • 1984 – France
  • 1988 – Netherlands
  • 1992 – Denmark
  • 1996 – Germany
  • 2000 – France
  • 2004 – Greece
  • 2008 – Spain
  • 2012 – Spain
  • 2016 – Portugal

Major Upsets

As we can see from the list of winners, a variety of nations has won the European Championship and, as touched on in our betting strategy section, there have been a number of big upsets in terms of the outright winner.

In terms of the odds, none can beat Greece in 2004 and whilst they didn’t quite “do a Leicester”, odds of 150/1 were certainly hugely rewarding for anyone who saw that coming. Portugal were the hosts that year and it was also the tournament where Wayne Rooney probably produced his best football in an England shirt, despite being just 18 years old.

Rooney set English pulses racing and his four goals in four games saw him named in UEFA’s Team of the Tournament. However, he limped off in England’s quarter final loss to Portugal and it was Cristiano Ronaldo’s team that Greece ultimately beat in the final.

The Greeks only scraped through the group phase, finishing behind Portugal in Group A and level on points with Spain. They made the last eight thanks to scoring more goals than the Spaniards, which is somewhat ironic given their triumph is considered to be one of the most dour in major tournament history!

Greece lost their two opening games in qualification 2-0 and seemed doomed but fought back to make the tournament under the guidance of Otto Rehhagel. Only Latvia were less fancied than Greece but their German boss had them very well organised, they had luck when it mattered and they worked incredibly hard as a unit.

In the quarters they knocked out the defending champions France, winning 1-0, before they needed a silver goal against the Czechs to win in the semis, that game also ending 1-0. In the final, in a largely forgettable match with the hosts in Lisbon, Rehhagel’s men won 1-0 yet again.

Theodoros Zagorakis was named player of the tournament but it is perhaps telling that his goalkeeper and two Greek centre backs made the team of the tournament. Greece were not easy on the eye but the fact they didn’t concede a single goal in three knockout games has to be worthy of credit.

Denmark Fails to Qualify but Still Wins

At shorter odds Denmark’s Euros success in 1992 was perhaps even more surprising. The Danes were pipped to qualification by Yugoslavia in Group 4 as they paid the price for only managing two draws against Northern Ireland. The players duly booked their summer holidays and made plans that probably didn’t involve watching the action in Sweden, let alone travelling there.

However, off the pitch events would change things dramatically. Yugoslavia was in the process of breaking up and civil war and subsequent UN sanctions meant they were disqualified. Just 10 days prior to Euro 92, Denmark were drafted in and the players had virtually no time to prepare or train.

Theirs was another triumph based on defence, with manager Richard Møller Nielsen using his team’s size and power, plus the brilliance of Peter Schmeichel in goal, to great effect. As with Greece, we saw that organisation and team unity can be powerful forces and it probably also helped that the Danes were familiar with conditions in Sweden. A sprinkling or two of magic up front from Brian Laudrup completed the team.

From start to finish though it was Schmeichel who marshalled his team and they conceded just two goals to finish behind the hosts but ahead of France and England in Group 1. Next they faced the defending champions, Netherlands, winning on penalties after a 2-2 draw.

Few gave the Danes a hope in the final against a very strong German side but in the end it was a relatively easy win for the underdogs. They beat the more fancied, better prepared and undoubtedly technically superior side 2-0 to complete what really was a fairy tale for Denmark.

Trivia

For a large number of people, seven is considered a lucky number. We have no research to prove this but we reckon it is true so here are our seven top pieces of Euros trivia to entertain, amuse and impress (at least those people who are easily entertained, amused and impressed).

  1. Platini and Ronaldo – both these football legends have managed nine goals in Euros finals. However, Michel Platini scored all of his in 1984 at a rate of 1.8 per game, whilst CR7 has taken four Championships and 12 years to score his at a rate of 0.43 goals per match!
  2. Irish Goals Galore (in Qualifying!) – Ireland’s Robbie Keane is the record scorer in Euros qualifying with 23. Northern Ireland’s David Healy jointly holds (with Robert Lewandowski) the record for the most goals registered in a single qualifying competition, managing 13 in 2008 qualification.
  3. Lucky 13 – our lucky number is an obvious pick, seven. However, Germany might think 13 is theirs, as they walloped San Marino 13-0 in the biggest ever win in a European Championship game.
  4. Unlucky 7 – perhaps amazingly, in the entire 1968 tournament finals there were only seven goals scored. Certainly unlucky for the neutrals, although in fairness there were only four games.
  5. Unlucky Toss – sticking with 1968, and with bad luck, following a 0-0 draw with the Soviet Union in Naples, Italy were eliminated from their home Euros on the toss of a coin. Mama Mia!
  6. Your Support is F***ing S**t – the 1964 finals game between Hungary and Denmark was watched by just 3,869 people, the lowest attendance for a European Championship finals game.
  7. When Two Tribes go to War – the 11th June 2016 was a tough day for the Xhaka family as brothers Granit (of Arsenal “fame”) and Taulant Xhaka became the first brothers to play against each other. Loyal (who are we to say less talented?!) Taulant turned out for his ancestral Albania whilst turncoat (to some!) Granit played for Switzerland, the country of his birth