Champions League Betting Tips

Champions League Match Ball on Pitch

vverve, bigstockphoto.com

The UEFA Champions League is the premier club competition in Europe and arguably the most prestigious club competition in the world. Recent English winners include Manchester United in 1999 and 2008, Liverpool in 2005 and Chelsea in 2012.

Previously this was known as the European Cup, a knockout competition for the previous season’s league winner from across the continent. The Champions League now sees up to 4 teams from each country take part in a series of qualifying rounds before a league stage and subsequent knockout format.

Each round we’ll take a look and the pick of the fixtures and offer up our betting predictions, with the most recent shown below.

Champions League Matches – 11th & 12th December 2018

Date Time Channel Match Tip
11/12/18 20:00 BT Sport Barcelona v Tottenham Barcelona Win
11/12/18 20:00 BT Sport Inter v PSV Inter to Win -1
11/12/18 20:00 BT Sport Red Star v PSG PSG to Win -3
11/12/18 20:00 BT Sport Liverpool v Napoli Liverpool to Win -1
12/12/18 20:00 BT Sport Man City v Hoffenheim Man City to Win -2
12/12/18 20:00 BT Sport Valencia v Man Utd Man Utd Win

Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool still have plenty of work to do in their respective UEFA Champions League groups. The Reds currently sit third in Group C, with Jurgen Klopp’s side needing a win by two clear goals over Napoli to progress to the Round of 16. As for Tottenham, they just need to match Inter Milan’s result in Group B. Both sides are up against it somewhat but both could well be capable of securing the required results.

Things have been easier for the Manchester clubs, with Manchester City and Manchester United both safely through to the last 16 with a game to spare. City have all but won Group F, as Pep Guardiola’s men sit three points above Lyon with a far greater goal difference. United, meanwhile, will finish top of Group H if they beat Valencia and Juventus lose to Young Boys.

Spurs to Come Up Short in Catalonia

Barcelona Camp Nou

By Cappo80, Wikimedia Commons

Mauricio Pochettino takes his Tottenham team to the Camp Nou on Tuesday night to face Ernesto Valverde’s Barcelona in Group B. Barca are already through to the last 16 after taking 13 points from a possible 15. Spurs, though, still have work to do if they want to join them.

Blaugrana have been superb in a tricky group, making light work of the likes of Tottenham, Inter and PSV Eindhoven. Valverde’s side kicked off their campaign with a 4-0 win over PSV at the Camp Nou, which they followed up with an impressive 4-2 victory against Spurs at Wembley Stadium. Barca then took four points from two matches with Inter before winning 2-1 in Eindhoven.

In stark contrast, Tottenham made a poor start to their Champions League campaign, picking up just one point from their opening three Group B games, as they lost to Inter and Barca before being held to a frustrating 2-2 draw by PSV in Holland. Since then, however, the Lilywhites have really kicked on, sealing back-to-back home wins over PSV and Inter to keep their last 16 hopes alive, if only just.

Even though the Spanish giants are already through to the knockouts, this will still be a very tough test for Spurs. Unfortunately for Tottenham, we can see Barcelona winning (23/20) on home turf on Tuesday night, sending the visitors down into the Europa League in the process.

Liverpool to Get the Job Done at Anfield

Klopp’s Liverpool host Carlo Ancelotti’s Napoli in a must-win game in Group C. The Italian Serie A outfit currently lead the way in the group, with Paris Saint-Germain sitting second. The Reds, who were runners-up last season, must win by two clear goals at Anfield to progress to the Round of 16, meaning this is shaping up to be yet another huge European night at the famous old stadium.

Liverpool have had no problems at Anfield in the Champions League this term, beating PSG 3-2 and Red Star Belgrade 4-0, but their form away from home in Europe has been dreadful and could be what costs them. The Premier League side have lost all three of their away games, losing 1-0 in Naples, 2-0 in Belgrade and 2-1 in Paris.

Napoli are the only unbeaten side left in Group C, as Ancelotti’s men have been superb so far, winning two and drawing three. However, the Italians would be through already if they hadn’t dropped points in Serbia on matchday one. Nevertheless, a draw or even a defeat by one goal will be enough to take them into the last 16 alongside PSG.

Liverpool have been remarkably strong at home this season, winning eight of their opening 10 league and cup games at Anfield this season, shipping just five times along the way. We fancy the Reds to get through by the skin of their teeth on Tuesday, so back the home team to win -1 at 6/4.

Wins for Both Manchester Clubs

Man City are already in the hat for the last 16, but Guardiola’s troops will want to win Group F and thus avoid the likes of Barcelona and probably Real, Bayern and Juve too. This Wednesday, the Citizens host Julian Nagelsmann’s Hoffenheim at the Etihad Stadium. City have responded well from their opening night defeat, going on to take 10 points from their following four Champions League fixtures. Man City should win this one with ease, and the hosts are priced at 21/20 to prevail -1 in midweek.

Man Utd needed a last-gasp Marouane Fellaini goal against Young Boys to secure their passage through to the last 16. United now travel to Valencia on matchday six to complete their group fixtures. The Red Devils have done their job, but Jose Mourinho’s men could still finish top of Group H, although it looks unlikely, not least due to their current form. Although we actually fancy Man Utd to win in Spain, we also expect Juve to ease to a victory against Young Boys. You can get Mourinho’s boys at 7/4 to win in the Mestalla on Wednesday.

  • Inter v PSV - With Tottenham in Barcelona, Inter Milan will still fancy their chances of beating Spurs to second spot in Group B. The Serie A side need to better Tottenham’s result if they are to go through. PSV have been the weak link in the group, and this will no doubt be another stern test for Mark van Bommel’s men. We fancy the hosts to win -1 at 5/6, meaning that Spurs would have to do the same in the Nou Camp to progress. Bye bye Tottenham.
  • Red Star v PSG - Thomas Tuchel’s PSG should book their place in the knockout rounds with an easy win over Red Star in Belgrade on Tuesday. The Serbians shocked Liverpool at home last month, but we can’t see them doing the same to Paris here. We’re backing the Parisians to win by a big margin in Belgrade, so put some money on the visitors to win -3 at 11/4.

Champions League Betting Strategy

The Champions League is arguably the best football tournament in the world in terms of the standard of football. Many argue that the quality of the last 16 in this continental cup eclipses the World Cup, European Championships, Copa America and all the rest. Whether you agree with that or not, one thing is for sure, the Champions League is packed with brilliant players, exciting football and superb betting opportunities.

It evolved from the European Cup, which was initially designed to pit the champions of the various domestic leagues around Europe against each other to determine the best club side in the continent. That aim remains but the modern competition, for good or ill, is much expanded and now countries can have as many as five entrants.

Whatever you think of the current format, which ultimately is designed to maximise revenue for all parties, especially the biggest and best sides, the Champions League remains a brilliant competition. Read on as we take a closer look at its history, the format and structure of the tournament as well as offer a few betting pointers if you fancy a bet on the Champions League.

Betting on the Tournament

As you would expect of a competition with the best teams and players around and masses of television and online coverage, your options for betting on the Champions League are almost limitless.

If you include the earliest preliminary rounds through to the final, the Champions League offers up betting options 12 months of the year, starting in June and ending with the final in May! As well as being a year-round cup, once the real action gets started, usually in September, your options within each game are astounding too.

The question is, with all these options, what tactics can you use to try and make a profit to make the Champions League even more exciting? Our main football betting strategy feature has some more general info but here are one or two things to look out for that are more specific to the UCL itself.

Preliminary and Qualifying Rounds

Whilst many people don’t really get too excited about the early stages of the competition, arguably this might be the best time to make a profit. Whilst the sun shines in June, July and August, make betting hay, we say.

When the big boys get involved it is hard to get an edge over the bookies as they put the full might of their resources into analysing all the available information. Moreover, for such games, the level of data offered is huge.

In contrast, for the games in the early stages of the Champions League, the determined punter has a much better chance of finding something the bookie hasn’t considered. Be this through a local contact, local news source or simply by outworking the bookies’ oddsmakers, you might just find a value bet or two.

Back Real Madrid…Every Year!

Real Madrid have won the Champions League (including European Cup) an astounding 13 times. That means they have won more than 20% of all editions, winning around once every 4.8 years.

If betting on Lincoln Imps (Gibraltar) v La Fiorita (San Marino) and trying to find out if the players were out drinking before the game, or if the star striker’s wife is in the process of divorcing him, sounds like too much hassle, you could just back Real to win the Champions League outright.

Ahead of the 2018-19 campaign the Spanish giants were priced at 10/1 – not bad for a side that has won one out of every five Champions Leagues! Even the favourites are rarely shorter than 4/1 or 5/1 so it is safe to say Real would have returned a healthy profit over the years!

Comeback Kings?

Fans of in-play betting may be interested to know that one trend noted by UEFA’s own technical report recently is the Champions League comeback. If you love backing a side when they have conceded the first goal and their odds have rocketed, now could be the time to up your bets.

For a long time it was felt that the first goal was so crucial in this competition and past technical reports highlighted the importance of scoring first. In the 2014-15 Champions League, there were just five games where the side scoring first lost.

However, since then there has been a steady increase. The comeback stats jumped to 15 the following season, then 17 and last season the upwards trend continued as there were 20 wins for teams that had gone 1-0 down.

This is a trend that may well be worth paying particular attention to in the knockout phase. In 2017-18 there were 27 knockout games with at least one goal. Of those, eight, 30%, were won by the side that conceded first.

Now, this may simply be an anomaly, although UEFA state that teams may be “mentally better equipped to deal with adverse situations”. Other explanations are that sides are playing more attacking football, resulting in more goals, especially away goals, and thus a greater capacity for comebacks.

Goals

Talking of goals, UEFA also note that in 2017-18 more than 400 goals were scored for the first time in the 125-match format of the Champions League. The season before saw the goals per game average surpass three for the first time and so there are definitely more goals being scored.

Many bookies and punters can be slow to react to changing trends and so this could mean there is value to be found on a range of goals markets. It’s also worth noting that 3% of goals were scored in stoppage time, whilst 38% in total were scored from the 61st minute onwards.

This could mean there is even more value indulging in a spot of in-play betting on a late goal, especially where injuries mean a significant amount of added time is anticipated.

Champions League and European Cup History

The Champions League had its first season in 1992 but the roots of this competition go back much further. The Champions League is simply a rebranding of the European Cup and that was first held back in 1955.

In the years following the end of the Second World War many pan-European initiatives, events and organisations were set up. It was believed that if the individual European countries had closer links, a repeat of such a terrible war could be avoided in the future.

It may seem strange to view the Champions League as a bid to avoid war and even stranger to view the Eurovision Song Contest (founded in 1956) in that context, but such competitions were indeed part of a wider effort to ensure that never again would Europe be ripped apart.

In fact, a continental football championship had been considered before, as early as 1927, but after much discussion and deliberation the first ever European Cup took place only in the 1955-56 season. A total of 16 sides took part, including giants such as Real Madrid and AC Milan. Hibs were the only British side involved, along with lesser European lights such as Sweden’s Djurgården and Reims from France.

The competition evolved over the years but for most of its history it was a straight knockout cup, featuring only the sides who had won their domestic leagues the preceding season. Different clubs and countries enjoyed long periods of dominance, with Real Madrid winning the first five editions. In the 1970s, Dutch clubs won the first four European Cups, before Bayern Munich won three in a row and then English sides took the glory in 1977, 1978 and 1979.

Indeed, the 1970s and 1980s were a brilliant period for English teams. Between 1977 and 1984, Liverpool won four European Cups, Nottingham Forrest won back to back titles under Brian Clough and Aston Villa triumphed in the 1981-82 season.

Cup Becomes a League

In 1992-93 the European Cup was rebranded as the UEFA Champions League (UCL), UEFA working in partnership with T.E.A.M. Marketing AG to create a more lucrative event. More games were televised and the new competition was heavily marketed. The biggest change in terms of the format was that the eight quarter-finalists now entered a league phase.

This created more games between top sides and thus generated more money for the clubs and UEFA. Milan and Marseille topped the first ever “leagues” within the Champions League, Marseille going on to beat the Italians 1-0 in the first ever Champions League final.

The biggest change since then came shortly after the rebranding in 1997-98 when sides who had not won their domestic leagues were admitted. League, yes: champions (only), no more. Some purists were outraged by this but, as ever in modern football, money was the final judge. By admitting more teams into the Champions League there would be more games, not to mention more “big” sides.

No longer did either Barca or Real have to miss out every year, with a similar story in England and the other top European Leagues. There is no doubt that these changes have proved hugely lucrative for all involved. However, for some, it still rankles that a side can be crowned the champions of Europe when they were not even the champions in their own country.

As the competition has continued to grow and evolve, countries can now have as many as five sides in the Champions League. This has meant that non-champions have won on a number of occasions, for example Manchester United in 1999 and Chelsea in 2012.

However, there can be no doubt that the Champions League has been a huge success since its rebranding at the start of the 1990s. Since the move to admit non-league winners, the key structure and format have remained largely the same. More countries and teams have been admitted and there have been some minor tweaks over the years.

Essentially, though, the Champions League continues to thrive on the basis of pitting Europe’s best teams and players against each other on a regular basis. Long may it continue!

Champions League Format

As alluded to above, the exact structure and format of the Champions League has changed many times. In essence, it features the top sides from all of the UEFA national associations. Each nation has a ranking based on various factors with the weakest nations having fewer sides admitted and at earlier stages of the competition.

To give you a better idea of how this structure works, let us consider the 2018-19 UCL. That year saw European minnows such as the champions of Andorra, Gibraltar, San Marino and Kosovo as the only entrants from their leagues. These teams entered the Champions League at the preliminary round.

One of those four teams will progress to the First Qualifying round, where they are joined by 33 champions of the next-lowest ranked 33 UEFA associations. This process continues, with higher and higher ranked leagues joining deeper and deeper into the competition.

At the opposite end of the spectrum to the likes of Gibraltar and San Marino are leagues such as the Premier League, La Liga and the Bundesliga. Those three, along with (again, as of 2018) Serie A, automatically get all four of their sides straight into the group phase of the competition, with further seedings also ensuring that the strongest sides from the highest-ranked federations will not be drawn against each other.

To put all that into perspective, Kosovo’s Drita, who began their Champions league journey back in June, would need to play 10 games to qualify for the groups.

Champions League Proper

For many viewers and punters, the “Champions League” really means the competition from the group stage onwards. Again, in order to generate more matches and maximise revenue, this part of the tournament, has, in general, been growing since the competition’s inception.

There are now eight groups of four, meaning 32 sides, with each playing home and away and thus six games each at this phase of the UCL. The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase, which older readers will probably call “the last 16”, whilst younger football fans know it as the “Round of 16”.

From this stage onwards the competition begins to look a little like the European Cups of old. These 16 sides are drawn against each other, with group winners facing those that finished second in their groups. These teams play home and away with the aggregate winners progressing to the quarter finals.

The quarter finals and semis are also both played over two legs before the winners of the latter meet in the Champions League final at a venue that is decided on a rotating basis many years in advance. Got it?!

Champions League Trivia

Some may view that as simply the boring history, and those people will be pleased that stuff is over with. Now for 15 facts essentially guaranteed to impress your mates. Or at least to make them think you are a total geek; or maybe both.

  1. Lucrative – winning the 2019 Champions League could earn a club as much as €82m. And that’s not including their share of the television money!
  2. Ronaldo – has won the UCL five times – no player has won more. He is also the first player to score in two finals for different winning sides.
  3. Ronaldo Again – and that’s not to mention his 121 (and counting) Champions League goals or the six seasons he has been the competition’s top scorer.
  4. Real Madrid – their 13 titles is more than won by Bayern Munich and Barca combined!
  5. Juventus – as of 2018, Juventus have made nine finals but lost seven of them.
  6. 100% – Nottingham Forest and Porto are the only sides to have appeared in more than one final and won them all.
  7. Anthem – the iconic and, well, anthemic, Champions League music is unimaginatively called Champions League, though it is an adaptation of the much better-named Zadok the Priest by Handel.
  8. Derby – there have been six UCL finals between clubs from the same country, with Real and Atletico Madrid playing twice in a true derby. Real also played Valencia, with Chelsea and Man United, Juve and Milan, and Bayern v Borussia Dortmund completing the set.
  9. Seeing Red – there have been three red cards in finals of the Champions League, with Jens Lehmann, Didier Drogba and Juan Cuadrado the men to receive their marching orders.
  10. TV – in recent seasons the CL final has been the most-watched annual sporting event on TV with more than 300m viewers, around three times that of the Super Bowl.
  11. Home – Real Madrid are the only side to have won the Champions League/European Cup at their own ground. They beat Fiorentina 2-0 back in 1957.
  12. Goals Galore – the highest scoring Champions League final ever was in 1960 when Real (yes, them again!) beat Eintracht Frankfurt 7-3 in 1960
  13. Fans Galore – there were 127,621 people inside Hampden Park, Glasgow (officially at least) for the 1960 final, a record for a Champions League final and one unlikely to be broken any time soon
  14. 8-0 – 8-0 is the biggest win in the history of the modern Champions League, achieved by Liverpool against Besiktas and some team from Madrid against Malmo.
  15. Pah, Only 8? – 11-0 is the biggest win in the overall history of the competition, with Dinamo București beating Crusaders 11–0 in 1973–74.