Premier League Betting Tips

Premier League LogoAs the big daddy of the English football world the Premier League draws the biggest crowds, the highest viewing figures and, of course, the most money. In this section we cover betting tips of every Premier League match day as well as outright winner bets on who will win the league.

Note: Match day coverage is posted a couple of days before the first game.

Premier League Matches – 23rd to 25th November 2019

Date Time Channel Match Tip
23/11/19 12:30 BT Sport West Ham v Tottenham Tottenham Win
23/11/19 15:00 N/A Arsenal v Southampton Arsenal to Win -1
23/11/19 15:00 N/A Bournemouth v Wolves Wolves Win
23/11/19 15:00 N/A Brighton v Leicester Leicester Win
23/11/19 15:00 N/A Crystal Palace v Liverpool Liverpool to Win -1
23/11/19 15:00 N/A Everton v Norwich Everton to Win -1
23/11/19 15:00 N/A Watford v Burnley Draw
23/11/19 17:30 Sky Sports Man City v Chelsea Man City Win
24/11/19 16:30 Sky Sports Sheff Utd v Man Utd Draw
25/11/19 20:00 Sky Sports Aston Villa v Newcastle Aston Villa Win

Tottenham Hotspur shocked the footballing world on Tuesday by sacking the popular and fairly successful Mauricio Pochettino, with Jose Mourinho almost instantly being announced as the new Spurs boss. On Saturday, Jose takes his new Tottenham team to the London Stadium to face West Ham United and suddenly the game, which already looked tasty, has taken on a whole new level of significance.

Later in the day, heavyweights Manchester City and Chelsea go head-to-head at the Etihad Stadium for a blockbuster game that is highly anticipated by fans of those sides and many neutrals. Meanwhile, high-flying Sheffield United host Manchester United in Sunday’s match as the Blades look to stay above Man United in the Premier League table.

Can Jose Start With a Win?

West Ham and Tottenham square off in a London derby at the London Stadium in the early kick off on Saturday afternoon. All eyes will be on new Spurs head coach Mourinho, but can Manuel Pellegrini’s Hammers make home advantage count?

West Ham have been in dreadful form of late, failing to win in any competition since a 2-0 home league victory over Man United way back in September. Since then, the Irons have taken just two points from a possible 18, which is frankly woeful.

Tottenham have not won any matches away from home in the Premier League since beating Fulham 2-1 at Craven Cottage all the way back in January of last season. Only bottom club Norwich City have picked up fewer away points so far this term. So in many ways it is no great surprise that Pochettino was shown the exit.

It will be very interesting to see how the Tottenham players get on with Pochettino no longer in the dugout, but Mourinho is a wily old fox and he tends to get the best out of his players in the early days at any club he’s joined. As such we think Mourinho will motivate his new players sufficient to get off to a winning start, so have a punt on Spurs to record a rare away win on Saturday at odds of 4/5.

City to Edge Past In-form Blues

The standout game in the Premier League this weekend is without doubt Saturday evening’s clash between Pep Guardiola’s Man City and Frank Lampard’s Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium. The Citizens will be hoping to bounce back from defeat at Liverpool, and indeed they will need to if they want to keep themselves in contention for the title this term.

Guardiola’s men had won three Premier League matches in a row before their loss at Anfield last time out. City now find themselves a whopping nine points behind the Reds in fourth spot, a point behind Saturday’s opponents.

Lampard’s Blues are a team in terrific form at the moment, which is a credit to the manager after a somewhat shaky start to the campaign. Chelsea head to Manchester having won each of their last six matches in the Premier League. Since opening up with a heavy defeat at Old Trafford in August, the Londoners have won eight of their following 11 in league action.

This promises to be a cracking game between two of England’s finest sides. However, with this taking place at the Etihad, Man City should just about have the edge. The home victory is available at odds of 2/5, which is just enough to tempt us in, though perhaps as one leg in an accumulator bet.

Arsenal & Liverpool to Pick Up Wins

Having gone four Premier League games without a win, Unai Emery’s Arsenal will be gunning for all three points when struggling Southampton visit the Emirates Stadium at the weekend. The north London outfit have struggled for wins this season, managing victories in just two of their past 10 games in the league. However, each of their last three league victories have come on home soil. Emery’s troops should be too strong for the Saints on Saturday, so back the hosts to win with a -1 goal handicap at odds of 6/5.

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool stretched their legs at the top of the Premier League table with a vital 3-1 home win over title rivals Man City before the international break. This weekend, the Reds make the trip to the capital to take on Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. Liverpool have had one or two problems at this ground over the years, but the Premier League leaders should cruise to another away win this weekend. Put some money on Klopp’s men to win with a -1 goal handicap at a very fair price of 6/5.

  • Bournemouth v Wolves - Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth and Nuno Espirito Santo’s Wolverhampton Wanderers meet at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday. This one could go either way, but we fancy Wolves, who are unbeaten in seven in the league, to get the victory (13/8).
  • Brighton v Leicester - In-form Leicester City will be looking for a fifth straight Premier League victory when they take on Brighton and Hove Albion at the Amex Stadium this Saturday. The Foxes have won their last three league and cup away matches, and Brendan Rodgers’ boys are priced at evens to come out on top in this one.
  • Everton v Norwich - Marco Silva’s Everton welcome bottom club Norwich to Goodison Park. The Canaries have lost six of their last seven in the Premier League. With that in mind, we’re backing Everton to win with a -1 goal handicap at a price of evens on home turf this Saturday afternoon.
  • Watford v Burnley - Watford moved off the foot of the table with a much-needed win over Norwich City before the international break. Can the Hornets pick up their first home league victory of the season when they entertain Burnley at Vicarage Road on Saturday? This could be a close one, so our money is going on the draw at odds of 12/5.
  • Sheff United v Man United - Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United have made a stunning start to their Premier League season. The Blades are currently sitting in fifth place in the table on 17 points, a point above Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Manchester United side. The Blades look like they could last the distance in the top flight this term and we fancy the home team to hold the Red Devils to a draw in this one at odds of 11/5.
  • Aston Villa v Newcastle - The action in the Premier League concludes on Monday night, as Dean Smith’s Aston Villa and Steve Bruce’s Newcastle United do battle at Villa Park. The Villans are the slight favourites, and we can see the hosts picking up their first win in four league games on Monday. Back Villa to prevail at odds of 21/20.

Premier League Ante Post Betting Tips 2019-2020

Last season was a truly remarkable one in the Premier League. The relentless brilliance of Manchester City and Liverpool took the title race down to the very last match of the season and both sides have put in a lot of work to ensure they improve for the 2019/20 campaign.

The chasing pack just couldn’t keep up with the blistering and relentless pace set by the top two. The rest of the so-called big six clubs will be gunning for last season’s protagonists in the title race but they face a huge task to close the gap. Chelsea, in third, were 25 points adrift of Liverpool and that was a fair reflection of the gap between the teams.

At the other end of the table, the relegation battle is set to be as engrossing and changeable as ever. With another topsy turvy nine months ahead, we’ve picked out the best early value in our Premier League ante post betting tips.

Can Manchester City Complete the Hat-Trick?

English football fans are very much used to Pep Guardiola’s intensity. The former Barcelona manager never seems to have a day off in his search for perfection so you can be sure he would have much preferred Manchester City to run away with the Premier League title rather than waiting for the final day of the season.

Guardiola knows as well as anybody that perfect does not exist in football though. Speaking on the pitch at the Amex Stadium after his team secured a second straight Premier League title, he said that the season was one of the most satisfying of his career to date. Yes, there was room for improvement in City’s performances in the middle portion of the season but the way they finished the campaign with 14 straight wins under the utmost pressure showed Guardiola that his team has bags and bags of character. That run included victories over Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal, plus wins away at Everton and Man United, making it even more impressive.

As you’d expect from a team of Man City’s resources, they will enter the new season with even more talent than they ended the last. Rodrigo has already been signed, along with a couple of lower key additions but more will surely follow. It’s what they’ve lost, however, that might most trouble City fans.

Vincent Kompany’s leadership played a vital part in each of Man City’s successes during his time at the club. Even when injury kept him out of the team, his importance in the dressing room cannot be overstated. Guardiola and his coaching staff will somehow need to work out a way of overcoming the loss of such an important figurehead to everybody at the club.

Kompany’s absence will be most keenly felt as and when Man City go through tough spells. The best way of ensuring they don’t miss him, therefore, is by playing well enough to avoid the tough spells. That is surely impossible in the Premier League. City will lose games and lose players to injury (where the versatility of Fabian Delph, departed to Everton, could be another loss, whilst it should also be noted that Delph was an underrated presence off the pitch too).

That should put doubts in the mind of punters considering backing Man City to win the Premier League for the third season in a row at a best price of 8/13 with BetVictor. The big question remaining is whether Liverpool or another side from the chasing pack will be able to push Man City quite as hard this time around.

Very Tough For Liverpool to Improve

The Liverpool team of 2018/19 will go down as one of the most unfortunate in Premier League history. Never before has a team failed to win the title having lost just one match or amassed 97 points.

Last season’s margins could scarcely have been tighter. If Liverpool had scored just one more goal in the seven matches they drew, Jurgen Klopp’s team would have got their hands on the Premier League trophy for the first time. Klopp is rightly choosing to take the positives from last season. It was Liverpool’s best ever Premier League campaign, they closed the gap considerably on Manchester City and there was the small matter of a sixth Champions League success.

Like Man City, Liverpool are working hard behind the scenes to ensure they are even stronger for the start of the new season. They’ve shed a number of players to free up some space in the wage budget and are unlikely to miss Daniel Sturridge or Alberto Moreno too much. Klopp himself has improved as a manager during his time with Liverpool as evidenced by an increased pragmatism that meant they did not put in undue amounts of effort earlier in the season. Liverpool’s approach will mature and refine once again this season but even so reaching 90+ points is a huge ask.

Last term the Reds had the rub of the green on a number of occasions and they cannot expect to be so fortunate again. If Liverpool are to finally win the Premier League for the first time they’ll need Man City to come a little closer to the pack. That is entirely possible and one of the main reasons why they are attracting support in the betting at odds of 9/4 with Ladbrokes.

Tottenham Look the Best of the Rest

This time last year Tottenham fans were getting very worried about the lack of incoming transfer activity. The club were apparently saddled with the huge expense of the yet to be opened new stadium forcing Daniel Levy to halt spending on new recruitments. It’s fair to say that the mood around Spurs fans currently is very different.

After flirting with the Manchester United and Real Madrid jobs for some time, Mauricio Pochettino has committed his future to Tottenham. That was the best news possible for Tottenham fans as few, if any, other managers in world football could have taken Spurs to the Champions League final last season.

Then there’s the wonderful new stadium which was opened to much fanfare, won a lot of praise and will be the backbone of any success that comes the club’s way in the years to come. Finally, Levy’s financial prudence and planning has really paid off. Tottenham have already splashed the cash on Tanguy Ndombele with more big moves apparently just around the corner.

Whatever happens in the transfer market, Pochettino remains Spurs’ biggest advantage over the rest of the chasing pack which includes Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal. Frank Lampard is only in his second season of management and facing a rebuilding task at Chelsea in the middle of a transfer ban. Moreover, of course, they lost Eden Hazard, with Christian Pulisic not yet anywhere near the same level. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer very much still has to prove he is up to the task of managing a club of Man Utd’s ambitions and Unai Emery is still working very hard to create a team in his own image at Arsenal.

It would have to go down as a big surprise if either of Chelsea, Manchester United or Arsenal finish above Spurs this season. Therefore, consider securing a profit from the head to head markets involving those teams. We think Chelsea in particular could struggle, so any market backing against them is also well worth considering. It’s a little bit of a longshot but backing them to finish outside of the top six could even be worth a small punt at odds of 10/3 with Ladbrokes.

Leicester Could be the Surprise Package

Leicester sprang the biggest surprise in Premier League history when they won the title in 2016. The squad that achieved that famous 5,000/1 success has largely been split up but the Foxes could well impress once again this season.

We’re not suggesting that punters should rush to back Leicester for the title at 300/1 with bet365 (odds that show just how wrong the bookies were when they offered 5,000/1!) but they are tempting in the Without Big Six market at 4/1, also with bet365. The competition in that market will be as fierce as ever. If Everton really find their feet under Marco Silva they will have a good season, Wolves showed no fear after winning promotion and should kick on whilst West Ham have some very exciting players in their ranks.

Leicester’s squad is at least as strong as any of their competition in that market and they have the brilliant Brendan Rodgers in charge. The Northern Irishman is written off as a figure of fun to some but he nearly won the Premier League with Liverpool, was all conquering during his time at Celtic and improved Leicester immediately after being appointed last season. He has done little wrong and the Foxes could definitely be in for a big campaign.

Burnley and Brighton Could Quickly Find Themselves in Trouble

The Premier League is one of the most competitive leagues in all of world football. That extends right the way through the league and the relegation battle should be typically fierce this season.

The three teams promoted from the Championship each have a lot to like about them. Norwich played some wonderful football last season under the impressive Daniel Farke, Sheffield United are riding the crest of a wave under Chris Wilder and will give next to nothing away whilst Aston Villa look to have invested wisely in their squad.

Sheffield United (4/6 with Betfred) and Norwich (evens with Betfair) are the favourites for the drop but the value could be on two sides who were in serious trouble at times last season. Burnley (2/1 with BetVictor for the drop) just about got out of the mire during the last campaign. The fear amongst their fans is that Sean Dyche’s approach is far too predictable to remain competitive for much longer whilst Brighton have swapped solidity under Chris Hughton for an attempt to play more attractive football under Graham Potter.

Both Burnley and Brighton have taken risky approaches for different reasons and it would be no surprise if at least one of them was relegated come the end of the campaign. They certainly look to offer more value than the predictable favourites of the newly promoted duo.

Outsiders to Crash Golden Party?

Last year three players finished tied in the top scorer battle, illustrating just how hard the Premier League Golden Boot betting can be. Two of those three, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (8/1) and Sadio Mane (12/1) are not among the very favourites this time around. Unsurprisingly Harry Kane heads the way, just ahead of Mo Salah and Sergio Aguero.

However, if you fancy something a little different, we have two outsiders who we feel could just be worth backing. Each way bets pay out on a top four finish so how about backing Vardy at 20/1 or Everton’s Richarlison at a massive 100/1?

Vardy was fifth last term, his 18 goals just four off the joint winners but Rodgers got the best out of him and he can definitely continue to do so. Richarlison notched 13 league goals but with Everton set for a stronger season and the young Brazilian likely to play more as an out and out striker, 20 goals certainly looks within his reach.

Premier League Betting Strategy

For football betting strategies, and indeed betting strategies on any sport, to be successful, the punter must seek out ‘value bets’, that is to say bets for which the odds are greater than the actual probability of that event happening. We go into a lot more detail about this on our dedicated Football Betting Strategy section, but essentially finding value bets lies at the heart of making a profit from betting on football.

Finding value bets is often best done when you find out some information that the bookmaker is unaware of that could affect the accuracy of their odds. The problem is, when it comes to the Premier League, it is all but impossible to steal a march on the bookies when it comes to access to information about the top teams and players.

Information is Power, But is There Anything the Bookies Don’t Know?

Social Media Concept

There are so many news outlets, websites and social media sites generating masses of information and data about the top flight. To sift through every last scrap of available info about the Premier League, all of which instantly come into the public domain, would be a time consuming task.

Betting on the Premier League is big business for most bookmakers and they invest considerable resources to make sure their odds are right and they have as much information on their markets as is possible. It is, therefore, very difficult to get an edge on them. It is highly unlikely that you will be able to react to some crucial team news or a managerial sacking before the big bookies have adjusted their odds to take such news into account.

For instance, suppose Harry Kane suffers an injury in training ahead of a Tottenham match; if you were able get hold of that information before the bookies it is likely that you could get a great value bet for one of his understudies, Fernando Llorente or Son Heung-Min, for instance, in the first goalscorer market. In reality, unless you happen to be watching the training session in person and then get your bet on within minutes, the bookies are likely to change their odds before you find out about the injury.

The ‘Nothing To Play For’ Fallacy

Footballer Lying on Pitch on Talking on PhoneAs such, finding value bets on the Premier League can be more about analysing and identifying the bookies’ misjudgements of a given situation. For instance, it has been known for bookmakers to put too much stock on a team having ‘nothing to play for’.

Often towards the end of a Premier League season there are matches in which a mid-table side that can neither be relegated nor qualify for the Europa League will host a relegation-threatened side that is fighting for survival in the top flight. As we detail in our Football Strategy piece, it can often be the case that bookies will make the visiting side favourites despite them having been poor all season (indicated by the fact they are in the relegation dogfight in the first place). This could indicate a fine opportunity to grab some betting value by backing the home side.

Festive Frenzy

Festive Fixtures: Santa Holding a Football

Football fans love the hectic festive football frenzy when the games are coming thick and fast and the players become prone to mistakes and mishaps. It’s fair to say many managers don’t share the fans’ enthusiasm for so many games in such a short period of time.

From a betting perspective, though, this can be a good time to seek out some shock results. Boxing Day and New Year’s Day fixtures often throw up some surprises, and though it’s more likely due to player fatigue than festive excess, Man City away at Newcastle on a cold, blizzardy late-December night might just give you the chance to earn a few quid.

Generally the bookies will factor in weather conditions and so on, but so scared are they of overpricing the best sides in the land, it is often the case that if there are factors that play into the hands of their opponents, there is value to be had.

Using Statistics to Find Value

StatsAs well as information, statistics can be very useful when it comes to picking out winning bets. Whether you are focussing on average goals per game of a given side, statistics on a player’s shots to goals ratio or refereeing stats, it generally pays to delve into the facts and figures before placing your bets.

For instance, if you are inclined to bet on the number of yellow cards that will be shown in a given match, it really makes sense to check who the referee will be for the game and to look at their stats. All too often, punters focus on the teams and players, overlooking the fact that the referee is the man handing out the cards.

For instance, in the 2017-18 Premier League season, Jonathan Moss refereed 29 games and dished out a cool 107 yellow cards, an average of 3.69 per game. Kevin Friend, meanwhile, somewhat lived up to his amiable name by reaching for the yellow on just 46 occasions over the course of the 21 games in which he was the ref, an average of just 2.19 yellows per game.

Premier League 2017-2018 Yellow Cards Per Game By Referee

Yellow cards awarded per game in 2017-2018 Premier League season listed by referee.

Of course, as with most pieces of information relating to the Premier League, the bookies’ odds will no doubt take account of who is the referee of a given match. But refs can get injured too, so if you are on the ball and you see a ref pull a hamstring in a game on Saturday, and you know the next match in their schedule, there is a chance you could use this to your advantage.

Another statistic that could be worth investigating involves how teams score their goals. Again looking back to the 2017-18 season as an example, it is notable that none of Stoke, Newcastle and Burnley scored a single penalty during the season. As such, you clearly wouldn’t want to bet on a penalty to be scored if Burnley hosted Newcastle.

Conversely, and perhaps surprisingly, Crystal Palace scored a whopping eight times from the spot, something that a savvy punter might take advantage of if the Eagles faced another side who won (and scored) penalties more than most, for example Man City who scored six.

Of course, however much you study the available information, it’s really not easy getting any kind of edge over the bookies when betting on the Premier League and it is more a case of using the available statistics, taking account of trends, form and psychology, and having a little helping hand from Lady Luck when you place your bets.

Premier League Stats and Facts

Here we have a few facts and statistics about the Premier League, all of which are correct as of the start of the 2018-19 season.

  1. The real Big Six? – Many younger fans might have only ever known Manchester City as a Premier League side, but in reality there are only six sides who have played in every Premier League season… and City are not one of them. The real Big Six are: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and Everton!
  2. Mighty Man United – As of the start of the 2018-19 season, Manchester United are the side who have won the most Premier League titles with 13 in total. They have also won three-in-a-row twice (1998-99, 1999-2000, 2000-01 and 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09)
  3. Invincible Arsenal – Arsenal are the only side in Premier League history to go through a full season without losing a single match. During the 2003-04 season, Arsenal – then managed by Arsene Wenger – completed their 38 league matches with 26 wins, 12 draws and zero defeats, amassing a total of 90 points which saw them win the league by 11 points (Chelsea finished second, Man United third). That fantastic achievement formed part of Arsenal’s record 49-game unbeaten run in the Premier League that ran from 7 May 2003 to 24 October 2004.
  4. Oh Dear, Derby – Derby County had an absolute nightmare in the 2007-08 season. They started the campaign pretty badly under the stewardship of Billy Davies, but he was replaced in November by Paul Jewell. The former Wigan man didn’t do too well either. After 38 Premier League games, the Rams had won just one, with eight draws and a whopping 29 defeats. Their total of 11 points is the lowest in Premier League history by some margin and they also earned the fewest points away from home in a season: three!
  5. Travel Sickness – Derby aren’t the only side to struggle on their travels in the Premier League. They are one of six sides that has failed to win a single Premier League game away from home in a season. The full list is, as mentioned, Derby County (2007-08), along with Leeds United (1992-93), Coventry City (1999-2000), Wolverhampton Wanderers (2003-04), Norwich City (2004-05) and Hull City (2009-10)
  6. One Team To Shock Them All – Only six sides have won the Premier League title. Four of them will immediately spring to the minds of football fans: Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Blackburn Rovers, with the SAS attack partnership of Alan Shearer and Chris Sutton, won in the 1994-95 season, but that was before the real gulf in finances between the haves and have nots really took hold of English football. But there was the shock of all shocks in the 2015-16 season when 5000/1 shot Leicester City batted all and sundry aside to take the title, finishing 10 points clear of Arsenal with Spurs, Man City and Man United trailing in their wake.

A Brief History of the Beginning of the Premier League

It is no exaggeration to say that the Premier League changed football. Since it was founded on 20th February 1992 after the clubs in the Football League First Division decided to break away from the Football League, English top flight football has been catapulted into a global phenomenon. Now broadcast to a potential television audience of almost five billion people in over 600 million homes around the globe, the Premier League is now the most-watched sports league in the world.

How did it all Start?

The reason the Premier League came about was in part due to the fact that the old First Division had begun to lag behind Serie A in Italy and La Liga in Spain in terms of both average attendances and, crucially for the clubs, revenues. There was a sense of missed opportunity amongst many of the top clubs’ chairmen, that the potential earning power of English football was not being realised.

In 1990 representatives of the biggest clubs in the land (Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal and Everton) met with Greg Dyke, then the MD of London Weekend Television. At the meeting they discussed the possibility of a breakaway from the Football League as a mechanism to boost the incomes of the clubs.

Founder Members Agreement

After the conclusion of the 1990-91 season, The Founder Members Agreement, signed by the biggest clubs in English football, was put forward. This set out the principals of a new breakaway league in which the clubs could negotiate their own broadcasting and sponsorship rights without having to defer to the Football League.

The final piece of the jigsaw that led to the split from the Football League and the formation of the Premier League was BSkyB’s successful £304 million bid to purchase the broadcasting rights to show top flight matches exclusively for a five year period from the 1992-93 season.

This dwarfed previous broadcast rights packages and the clubs in the newly formed Premier League would benefit greatly in financial terms. Ironically, Dyke and his ITV broadcaster didn’t even get the highlights package (that going to the BBC) despite the future FA chief being instrumental in getting the whole Premier League show on the road in the first place.

The inaugural Premier League season saw 22 sides competing, with Sheffield United’s Brian Deane scoring the first goal of the new league in a 2-1 victory over Manchester United, who then went on to find the first ever Premier League title:

1992-1993 Premier League Table

1992-1993 Premier League Table (via Soccerbase)

Fast forward to the present day and the Premier League is an extraordinary success story, bringing many of the best players and coaches in the world to the English top flight and producing scintillating football for fans all over the world to enjoy. Long may it continue!