Premier League Betting Tips

Premier League LogoAs the big daddy of the English football world the Premier League draws the biggest crowds, the highest viewing figures and, of course, the most money. In this section we cover betting tips of every Premier League match day as well as outright winner bets on who will win the league.

Note: Match day coverage is posted a couple of days before the first game.

Premier League Matches – 21st to 23rd January 2020

Date Time Channel Match Tip
21/01/20 19:30 N/A Aston Villa v Watford Watford Win
21/01/20 19:30 N/A Bournemouth v Brighton Draw & BTTS
21/01/20 19:30 N/A Crystal Palace v Southampton Crystal Palace Win
21/01/20 19:30 N/A Everton v Newcastle Draw
21/01/20 19:30 BT Sport Sheff Utd v Man City Man City Win & BTTS
21/01/20 20:15 BT Sport Chelsea v Arsenal Chelsea to Win by One Goal
22/01/20 19:30 BT Sport Leicester v West Ham Leicester Win
22/01/20 19:30 N/A Tottenham v Norwich Tottenham HT/FT
22/01/20 20:15 BT Sport Man Utd v Burnley Man Utd to Win -1
23/01/20 20:00 BT Sport Wolves v Liverpool Liverpool to Win to Nil

There’s a full Premier League fixture list in midweek, with games taking place on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. On Tuesday evening, London sides Chelsea and Arsenal clash at Stamford Bridge in what’s looks like being a particularly tasty encounter.

Premier League leaders Liverpool play on Thursday, as Jurgen Klopp’s men make the trip to Molineux to take on Nuno Espirito Santo’s Wolverhampton Wanderers. Will the Reds move a step closer to their first Premier League title, or will Wolves rise to the challenge and cause an upset?

Chelsea to Edge All-London Affair

Chelsea Pre Match at Stamford Bridge

By Erik Drost, flickr

Frank Lampard’s Chelsea host Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night with the home side looking to maintain their current position in the top four in the table. The Blues will be aiming to hit back after a rather unexpected defeat at Newcastle United last time out, while the Gunners have won just one league game under Arteta and really need to improve or they’ll slip into the bottom half of the table.

Chelsea were starting to find some momentum again after claiming seven points from a possible nine, but last weekend’s last-gasp defeat at St James’ Park was a huge setback for the Blues. However, with the likes of Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Arsenal also failing to win, not too much damage was done in the end.

Arsenal have been hard to beat under Arteta, but the Gunners have picked up just one league win in five league games since the Spaniard arrived in the hot seat. Last weekend, Arsenal were held to a 1-1 home draw by Sheffield United.

The Gunners have won just once away from home in league action since the opening weekend of the season. Chelsea have also had their problems of late, but the Blues should just about edge this one. The home team to win by one goal is available at odds of 11/4, which looks a decent option to us.

Another Clean Sheet for the Rampant Reds

Wolves Molineux Stadium

By Adam Hinett, flickr

Liverpool secured their 13th successive Premier League win by beating rivals Manchester United at Anfield on Sunday afternoon. A 14th-minute header from Virgil van Dijk and a late strike from Mohamed Salah made the difference as the Reds beat the Red Devils 2-0. Klopp’s men will be gunning for a 14th victory on the spin when they take on Wolves at Molineux this Thursday night, which would move them onto 67 points from 23 games.

Nuno’s Wanderers produced a stunning comeback at St Mary’s last time out, coming from two goals down to win 3-2. That was Wolves’ first Premier League victory in four, while their last home win was against Manchester City back in December.

Liverpool have hardly put a foot wrong this season, dropping just two Premier League points. The Reds have been exceptional on the road, winning nine and drawing one of their 10 away days. After last weekend’s results, the Merseyside outfit moved 16 points clear at the top of the table, with Man City in second place and Leicester in third.

Since thumping rivals Everton 5-2 at Anfield back in early December, Liverpool have won seven Premier League matches in a row without conceding a single goal. You can get very decent odds of 7/4 for the away team to win to nil at Molineux on Thursday.

Leicester and Tottenham to Get Back to Winning Ways

Leicester City King Power Stadium

By Pink Spider, Wikimedia Commons

Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester City have had an outstanding season so far, but they go into Wednesday’s match against West Ham United at the King Power Stadium having lost their last two games. Also, the Foxes have lost four of their previous six matches and have won just two of their last seven in league action. As for the Hammers, they have won one, drawn one and lost one of three in the league since David Moyes took over once again. This could be a close one, but our money is going on the Leicester win at odds of 4/7.

Tottenham have struggled in recent weeks, failing to win a Premier League game since squeezing past Brighton and Hove Albion at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Boxing Day. Since then, Spurs have taken just two points from a possible 12. Norwich City have given themselves a glimmer of hope by beating Bournemouth last weekend, but Daniel Farke’s men are still six points adrift of safety. Tottenham will be targeting a comfortable home win here, so back the hosts to be winning at half time and full time at odds of 11/10.

  • Aston Villa v Watford - Aston Villa and Watford meet in a huge relegation six-pointer at Villa Park on Tuesday. The Hornets are a point above the Villans, and Nigel Pearson’s men will be looking to stretch their unbeaten run in the league to seven matches with a positive result in the Midlands. The away victory is priced at odds of 11/8, which is just enough to tempt us.
  • Bournemouth v Brighton - Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth are in freefall, losing 10 of their last 12 in the Premier League. On Tuesday, the Cherries host Graham Potter’s Brighton at the Vitality Stadium. We fancy these two to play out an entertaining draw. Put some money on the draw and both teams to score at odds of 10/3.
  • Crystal Palace v Southampton - Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace shocked champions Man City by battling to a 2-2 draw at the Etihad Stadium last time out, while Southampton threw away a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2 at home to Wolves. These two are pretty evenly matched on paper, but the Eagles will want to make home advantage count. You can get the Palace win at odds of 19/10.
  • Everton v Newcastle - Carlo Ancelotti’s Everton welcome Steve Bruce’s Newcastle to Goodison Park in midweek. Ancelotti has made a solid start at the home of the Toffees, while the Magpies will be buoyed after their late win over Chelsea last Saturday. It’s a tough one to call so we’ll be backing the draw at odds of 10/3.
  • Sheff Utd v Man City - Man City may be 16 points behind leaders Liverpool, but they head to Bramall Lane as the clear favourites to leave with all three points. Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United have had a stunning season, and the Blades will no doubt give City a good game in the Steel City. The Man City win and both teams to score is available at odds of 7/4.
  • Man United v Burnley - On Wednesday evening, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Manchester United host Sean Dyche’s Burnley at Old Trafford. The Clarets came from behind to beat Leicester on Sunday, but the Red Devils should win this one on home turf. Take a punt on United to win with a -1 goal handicap at a price of 11/10.

Premier League Betting Strategy

For football betting strategies, and indeed betting strategies on any sport, to be successful, the punter must seek out ‘value bets’, that is to say bets for which the odds are greater than the actual probability of that event happening. We go into a lot more detail about this on our dedicated Football Betting Strategy section, but essentially finding value bets lies at the heart of making a profit from betting on football.

Finding value bets is often best done when you find out some information that the bookmaker is unaware of that could affect the accuracy of their odds. The problem is, when it comes to the Premier League, it is all but impossible to steal a march on the bookies when it comes to access to information about the top teams and players.

Information is Power, But is There Anything the Bookies Don’t Know?

Social Media Concept

There are so many news outlets, websites and social media sites generating masses of information and data about the top flight. To sift through every last scrap of available info about the Premier League, all of which instantly come into the public domain, would be a time consuming task.

Betting on the Premier League is big business for most bookmakers and they invest considerable resources to make sure their odds are right and they have as much information on their markets as is possible. It is, therefore, very difficult to get an edge on them. It is highly unlikely that you will be able to react to some crucial team news or a managerial sacking before the big bookies have adjusted their odds to take such news into account.

For instance, suppose Harry Kane suffers an injury in training ahead of a Tottenham match; if you were able get hold of that information before the bookies it is likely that you could get a great value bet for one of his understudies, Fernando Llorente or Son Heung-Min, for instance, in the first goalscorer market. In reality, unless you happen to be watching the training session in person and then get your bet on within minutes, the bookies are likely to change their odds before you find out about the injury.

The ‘Nothing To Play For’ Fallacy

Footballer Lying on Pitch on Talking on PhoneAs such, finding value bets on the Premier League can be more about analysing and identifying the bookies’ misjudgements of a given situation. For instance, it has been known for bookmakers to put too much stock on a team having ‘nothing to play for’.

Often towards the end of a Premier League season there are matches in which a mid-table side that can neither be relegated nor qualify for the Europa League will host a relegation-threatened side that is fighting for survival in the top flight. As we detail in our Football Strategy piece, it can often be the case that bookies will make the visiting side favourites despite them having been poor all season (indicated by the fact they are in the relegation dogfight in the first place). This could indicate a fine opportunity to grab some betting value by backing the home side.

Festive Frenzy

Festive Fixtures: Santa Holding a Football

Football fans love the hectic festive football frenzy when the games are coming thick and fast and the players become prone to mistakes and mishaps. It’s fair to say many managers don’t share the fans’ enthusiasm for so many games in such a short period of time.

From a betting perspective, though, this can be a good time to seek out some shock results. Boxing Day and New Year’s Day fixtures often throw up some surprises, and though it’s more likely due to player fatigue than festive excess, Man City away at Newcastle on a cold, blizzardy late-December night might just give you the chance to earn a few quid.

Generally the bookies will factor in weather conditions and so on, but so scared are they of overpricing the best sides in the land, it is often the case that if there are factors that play into the hands of their opponents, there is value to be had.

Using Statistics to Find Value

StatsAs well as information, statistics can be very useful when it comes to picking out winning bets. Whether you are focussing on average goals per game of a given side, statistics on a player’s shots to goals ratio or refereeing stats, it generally pays to delve into the facts and figures before placing your bets.

For instance, if you are inclined to bet on the number of yellow cards that will be shown in a given match, it really makes sense to check who the referee will be for the game and to look at their stats. All too often, punters focus on the teams and players, overlooking the fact that the referee is the man handing out the cards.

For instance, in the 2017-18 Premier League season, Jonathan Moss refereed 29 games and dished out a cool 107 yellow cards, an average of 3.69 per game. Kevin Friend, meanwhile, somewhat lived up to his amiable name by reaching for the yellow on just 46 occasions over the course of the 21 games in which he was the ref, an average of just 2.19 yellows per game.

Premier League 2017-2018 Yellow Cards Per Game By Referee

Yellow cards awarded per game in 2017-2018 Premier League season listed by referee.

Of course, as with most pieces of information relating to the Premier League, the bookies’ odds will no doubt take account of who is the referee of a given match. But refs can get injured too, so if you are on the ball and you see a ref pull a hamstring in a game on Saturday, and you know the next match in their schedule, there is a chance you could use this to your advantage.

Another statistic that could be worth investigating involves how teams score their goals. Again looking back to the 2017-18 season as an example, it is notable that none of Stoke, Newcastle and Burnley scored a single penalty during the season. As such, you clearly wouldn’t want to bet on a penalty to be scored if Burnley hosted Newcastle.

Conversely, and perhaps surprisingly, Crystal Palace scored a whopping eight times from the spot, something that a savvy punter might take advantage of if the Eagles faced another side who won (and scored) penalties more than most, for example Man City who scored six.

Of course, however much you study the available information, it’s really not easy getting any kind of edge over the bookies when betting on the Premier League and it is more a case of using the available statistics, taking account of trends, form and psychology, and having a little helping hand from Lady Luck when you place your bets.

Premier League Stats and Facts

Here we have a few facts and statistics about the Premier League, all of which are correct as of the start of the 2018-19 season.

  1. The real Big Six? – Many younger fans might have only ever known Manchester City as a Premier League side, but in reality there are only six sides who have played in every Premier League season… and City are not one of them. The real Big Six are: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and Everton!
  2. Mighty Man United – As of the start of the 2018-19 season, Manchester United are the side who have won the most Premier League titles with 13 in total. They have also won three-in-a-row twice (1998-99, 1999-2000, 2000-01 and 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09)
  3. Invincible Arsenal – Arsenal are the only side in Premier League history to go through a full season without losing a single match. During the 2003-04 season, Arsenal – then managed by Arsene Wenger – completed their 38 league matches with 26 wins, 12 draws and zero defeats, amassing a total of 90 points which saw them win the league by 11 points (Chelsea finished second, Man United third). That fantastic achievement formed part of Arsenal’s record 49-game unbeaten run in the Premier League that ran from 7 May 2003 to 24 October 2004.
  4. Oh Dear, Derby – Derby County had an absolute nightmare in the 2007-08 season. They started the campaign pretty badly under the stewardship of Billy Davies, but he was replaced in November by Paul Jewell. The former Wigan man didn’t do too well either. After 38 Premier League games, the Rams had won just one, with eight draws and a whopping 29 defeats. Their total of 11 points is the lowest in Premier League history by some margin and they also earned the fewest points away from home in a season: three!
  5. Travel Sickness – Derby aren’t the only side to struggle on their travels in the Premier League. They are one of six sides that has failed to win a single Premier League game away from home in a season. The full list is, as mentioned, Derby County (2007-08), along with Leeds United (1992-93), Coventry City (1999-2000), Wolverhampton Wanderers (2003-04), Norwich City (2004-05) and Hull City (2009-10)
  6. One Team To Shock Them All – Only six sides have won the Premier League title. Four of them will immediately spring to the minds of football fans: Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Blackburn Rovers, with the SAS attack partnership of Alan Shearer and Chris Sutton, won in the 1994-95 season, but that was before the real gulf in finances between the haves and have nots really took hold of English football. But there was the shock of all shocks in the 2015-16 season when 5000/1 shot Leicester City batted all and sundry aside to take the title, finishing 10 points clear of Arsenal with Spurs, Man City and Man United trailing in their wake.

A Brief History of the Beginning of the Premier League

It is no exaggeration to say that the Premier League changed football. Since it was founded on 20th February 1992 after the clubs in the Football League First Division decided to break away from the Football League, English top flight football has been catapulted into a global phenomenon. Now broadcast to a potential television audience of almost five billion people in over 600 million homes around the globe, the Premier League is now the most-watched sports league in the world.

How did it all Start?

The reason the Premier League came about was in part due to the fact that the old First Division had begun to lag behind Serie A in Italy and La Liga in Spain in terms of both average attendances and, crucially for the clubs, revenues. There was a sense of missed opportunity amongst many of the top clubs’ chairmen, that the potential earning power of English football was not being realised.

In 1990 representatives of the biggest clubs in the land (Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal and Everton) met with Greg Dyke, then the MD of London Weekend Television. At the meeting they discussed the possibility of a breakaway from the Football League as a mechanism to boost the incomes of the clubs.

Founder Members Agreement

After the conclusion of the 1990-91 season, The Founder Members Agreement, signed by the biggest clubs in English football, was put forward. This set out the principals of a new breakaway league in which the clubs could negotiate their own broadcasting and sponsorship rights without having to defer to the Football League.

The final piece of the jigsaw that led to the split from the Football League and the formation of the Premier League was BSkyB’s successful £304 million bid to purchase the broadcasting rights to show top flight matches exclusively for a five year period from the 1992-93 season.

This dwarfed previous broadcast rights packages and the clubs in the newly formed Premier League would benefit greatly in financial terms. Ironically, Dyke and his ITV broadcaster didn’t even get the highlights package (that going to the BBC) despite the future FA chief being instrumental in getting the whole Premier League show on the road in the first place.

The inaugural Premier League season saw 22 sides competing, with Sheffield United’s Brian Deane scoring the first goal of the new league in a 2-1 victory over Manchester United, who then went on to find the first ever Premier League title:

1992-1993 Premier League Table

1992-1993 Premier League Table (via Soccerbase)

Fast forward to the present day and the Premier League is an extraordinary success story, bringing many of the best players and coaches in the world to the English top flight and producing scintillating football for fans all over the world to enjoy. Long may it continue!