Premier League Betting Tips

Premier League LogoAs the big daddy of the English football world the Premier League draws the biggest crowds, the highest viewing figures and, of course, the most money. In this section we cover betting tips of every Premier League match day as well as outright winner bets on who will win the league.

Note: Match day coverage is posted a couple of days before the first game.

Premier League Update

Due to the ongoing public restrictions, the Premier League has been postponed until further notice, having earlier setting a date of at least April 30th. Given the current state of affairs it seemed highly unlikely it would have resumed then but there are still hopes the season can be completed at some stage. The majority of clubs have nine matches left to play, with Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool still 25 points clear of Manchester City at the top. Let’s take a look at how the season has gone so far.

Liverpool Deserve the Title

Liverpool Crest at Anfield Football Stadium

Steve, Pexels

Whether the Premier League returns this season remains to be seen. Some say it should restart in June, while others think it should be scrapped altogether in time for the start of next season. One thing’s for sure, Liverpool have without doubt been head and shoulders above the rest this year.

After 29 games played, Klopp’s boys are a staggering 25 points clear at the top. The Reds have won 27 times this term, drawing one and losing one of the other two. Before the season halted, Liverpool came form behind to beat Bournemouth 2-1 at Anfield after suffering their first league defeat of the campaign at Watford.

If the Premier League season does get up and running again, Liverpool will be looking to get the title in the bag as quickly as possible. Next up would be a home game against Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace but when, if, that game will take place, we just cannot say at this stage.

A Fantastic Season for Leicester

Leicester City King Power Stadium

By Pink Spider, Wikimedia Commons

At this moment in time, Leicester City are riding high in third place in the Premier League table. The Foxes have had a stunning season with the popular Brendan Rodgers at the helm, winning 16 of their 29 league games. If the season stopped now and the table was final, Leicester would be playing UEFA Champions League football once again next term.

Rodgers has had a stunning impact at the King Power Stadium since joining from Celtic. In his first full year in charge in the East Midlands, the former Liverpool boss has turned Leicester into one of the top teams in the division. Will the Foxes kick on even further next season and beyond?

Fascinating Relegation Fight

Aston Villa's Villa Park

By Woodym555, Wikimedia Commons

If the season was abandoned now and the current table was deemed final, few could say Liverpool didn’t deserve the title. At the other end of the table, however, the picture is far more difficult.

As it stands, only four points separate Aston Villa in 19th and Brighton & Hove Albion in 15th. Bournemouth, Watford and West Ham United are sandwiched in between, each with 27 points. Norwich City are bottom at present, picking up just 21 points from a possible 87 and whilst their fate is probably sealed, the other teams would rightly argue that much could change if the remaining fixtures can be played.

The battle for survival in the Premier League was really just hotting up as the suspension came along and changed everything. Villa have a game in hand on their relegation rivals, but Dean Smith’s boys had dropped to second from bottom, two points away from safety. If the season resumes, the Villans will still have to play Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal so they may be among sides lobbying for the entire campaign to be deemed null and void!

Premier League Betting Strategy

For football betting strategies, and indeed betting strategies on any sport, to be successful, the punter must seek out ‘value bets’, that is to say bets for which the odds are greater than the actual probability of that event happening. We go into a lot more detail about this on our dedicated Football Betting Strategy section, but essentially finding value bets lies at the heart of making a profit from betting on football.

Finding value bets is often best done when you find out some information that the bookmaker is unaware of that could affect the accuracy of their odds. The problem is, when it comes to the Premier League, it is all but impossible to steal a march on the bookies when it comes to access to information about the top teams and players.

Information is Power, But is There Anything the Bookies Don’t Know?

Social Media Concept

There are so many news outlets, websites and social media sites generating masses of information and data about the top flight. To sift through every last scrap of available info about the Premier League, all of which instantly come into the public domain, would be a time consuming task.

Betting on the Premier League is big business for most bookmakers and they invest considerable resources to make sure their odds are right and they have as much information on their markets as is possible. It is, therefore, very difficult to get an edge on them. It is highly unlikely that you will be able to react to some crucial team news or a managerial sacking before the big bookies have adjusted their odds to take such news into account.

For instance, suppose Harry Kane suffers an injury in training ahead of a Tottenham match; if you were able get hold of that information before the bookies it is likely that you could get a great value bet for one of his understudies, Fernando Llorente or Son Heung-Min, for instance, in the first goalscorer market. In reality, unless you happen to be watching the training session in person and then get your bet on within minutes, the bookies are likely to change their odds before you find out about the injury.

The ‘Nothing To Play For’ Fallacy

Footballer Lying on Pitch on Talking on PhoneAs such, finding value bets on the Premier League can be more about analysing and identifying the bookies’ misjudgements of a given situation. For instance, it has been known for bookmakers to put too much stock on a team having ‘nothing to play for’.

Often towards the end of a Premier League season there are matches in which a mid-table side that can neither be relegated nor qualify for the Europa League will host a relegation-threatened side that is fighting for survival in the top flight. As we detail in our Football Strategy piece, it can often be the case that bookies will make the visiting side favourites despite them having been poor all season (indicated by the fact they are in the relegation dogfight in the first place). This could indicate a fine opportunity to grab some betting value by backing the home side.

Festive Frenzy

Festive Fixtures: Santa Holding a Football

Football fans love the hectic festive football frenzy when the games are coming thick and fast and the players become prone to mistakes and mishaps. It’s fair to say many managers don’t share the fans’ enthusiasm for so many games in such a short period of time.

From a betting perspective, though, this can be a good time to seek out some shock results. Boxing Day and New Year’s Day fixtures often throw up some surprises, and though it’s more likely due to player fatigue than festive excess, Man City away at Newcastle on a cold, blizzardy late-December night might just give you the chance to earn a few quid.

Generally the bookies will factor in weather conditions and so on, but so scared are they of overpricing the best sides in the land, it is often the case that if there are factors that play into the hands of their opponents, there is value to be had.

Using Statistics to Find Value

StatsAs well as information, statistics can be very useful when it comes to picking out winning bets. Whether you are focussing on average goals per game of a given side, statistics on a player’s shots to goals ratio or refereeing stats, it generally pays to delve into the facts and figures before placing your bets.

For instance, if you are inclined to bet on the number of yellow cards that will be shown in a given match, it really makes sense to check who the referee will be for the game and to look at their stats. All too often, punters focus on the teams and players, overlooking the fact that the referee is the man handing out the cards.

For instance, in the 2017-18 Premier League season, Jonathan Moss refereed 29 games and dished out a cool 107 yellow cards, an average of 3.69 per game. Kevin Friend, meanwhile, somewhat lived up to his amiable name by reaching for the yellow on just 46 occasions over the course of the 21 games in which he was the ref, an average of just 2.19 yellows per game.

Premier League 2017-2018 Yellow Cards Per Game By Referee

Yellow cards awarded per game in 2017-2018 Premier League season listed by referee.

Of course, as with most pieces of information relating to the Premier League, the bookies’ odds will no doubt take account of who is the referee of a given match. But refs can get injured too, so if you are on the ball and you see a ref pull a hamstring in a game on Saturday, and you know the next match in their schedule, there is a chance you could use this to your advantage.

Another statistic that could be worth investigating involves how teams score their goals. Again looking back to the 2017-18 season as an example, it is notable that none of Stoke, Newcastle and Burnley scored a single penalty during the season. As such, you clearly wouldn’t want to bet on a penalty to be scored if Burnley hosted Newcastle.

Conversely, and perhaps surprisingly, Crystal Palace scored a whopping eight times from the spot, something that a savvy punter might take advantage of if the Eagles faced another side who won (and scored) penalties more than most, for example Man City who scored six.

Of course, however much you study the available information, it’s really not easy getting any kind of edge over the bookies when betting on the Premier League and it is more a case of using the available statistics, taking account of trends, form and psychology, and having a little helping hand from Lady Luck when you place your bets.

Premier League Stats and Facts

Here we have a few facts and statistics about the Premier League, all of which are correct as of the start of the 2018-19 season.

  1. The real Big Six? – Many younger fans might have only ever known Manchester City as a Premier League side, but in reality there are only six sides who have played in every Premier League season… and City are not one of them. The real Big Six are: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and Everton!
  2. Mighty Man United – As of the start of the 2018-19 season, Manchester United are the side who have won the most Premier League titles with 13 in total. They have also won three-in-a-row twice (1998-99, 1999-2000, 2000-01 and 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09)
  3. Invincible Arsenal – Arsenal are the only side in Premier League history to go through a full season without losing a single match. During the 2003-04 season, Arsenal – then managed by Arsene Wenger – completed their 38 league matches with 26 wins, 12 draws and zero defeats, amassing a total of 90 points which saw them win the league by 11 points (Chelsea finished second, Man United third). That fantastic achievement formed part of Arsenal’s record 49-game unbeaten run in the Premier League that ran from 7 May 2003 to 24 October 2004.
  4. Oh Dear, Derby – Derby County had an absolute nightmare in the 2007-08 season. They started the campaign pretty badly under the stewardship of Billy Davies, but he was replaced in November by Paul Jewell. The former Wigan man didn’t do too well either. After 38 Premier League games, the Rams had won just one, with eight draws and a whopping 29 defeats. Their total of 11 points is the lowest in Premier League history by some margin and they also earned the fewest points away from home in a season: three!
  5. Travel Sickness – Derby aren’t the only side to struggle on their travels in the Premier League. They are one of six sides that has failed to win a single Premier League game away from home in a season. The full list is, as mentioned, Derby County (2007-08), along with Leeds United (1992-93), Coventry City (1999-2000), Wolverhampton Wanderers (2003-04), Norwich City (2004-05) and Hull City (2009-10)
  6. One Team To Shock Them All – Only six sides have won the Premier League title. Four of them will immediately spring to the minds of football fans: Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Blackburn Rovers, with the SAS attack partnership of Alan Shearer and Chris Sutton, won in the 1994-95 season, but that was before the real gulf in finances between the haves and have nots really took hold of English football. But there was the shock of all shocks in the 2015-16 season when 5000/1 shot Leicester City batted all and sundry aside to take the title, finishing 10 points clear of Arsenal with Spurs, Man City and Man United trailing in their wake.

A Brief History of the Beginning of the Premier League

It is no exaggeration to say that the Premier League changed football. Since it was founded on 20th February 1992 after the clubs in the Football League First Division decided to break away from the Football League, English top flight football has been catapulted into a global phenomenon. Now broadcast to a potential television audience of almost five billion people in over 600 million homes around the globe, the Premier League is now the most-watched sports league in the world.

How did it all Start?

The reason the Premier League came about was in part due to the fact that the old First Division had begun to lag behind Serie A in Italy and La Liga in Spain in terms of both average attendances and, crucially for the clubs, revenues. There was a sense of missed opportunity amongst many of the top clubs’ chairmen, that the potential earning power of English football was not being realised.

In 1990 representatives of the biggest clubs in the land (Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal and Everton) met with Greg Dyke, then the MD of London Weekend Television. At the meeting they discussed the possibility of a breakaway from the Football League as a mechanism to boost the incomes of the clubs.

Founder Members Agreement

After the conclusion of the 1990-91 season, The Founder Members Agreement, signed by the biggest clubs in English football, was put forward. This set out the principals of a new breakaway league in which the clubs could negotiate their own broadcasting and sponsorship rights without having to defer to the Football League.

The final piece of the jigsaw that led to the split from the Football League and the formation of the Premier League was BSkyB’s successful £304 million bid to purchase the broadcasting rights to show top flight matches exclusively for a five year period from the 1992-93 season.

This dwarfed previous broadcast rights packages and the clubs in the newly formed Premier League would benefit greatly in financial terms. Ironically, Dyke and his ITV broadcaster didn’t even get the highlights package (that going to the BBC) despite the future FA chief being instrumental in getting the whole Premier League show on the road in the first place.

The inaugural Premier League season saw 22 sides competing, with Sheffield United’s Brian Deane scoring the first goal of the new league in a 2-1 victory over Manchester United, who then went on to find the first ever Premier League title:

1992-1993 Premier League Table

1992-1993 Premier League Table (via Soccerbase)

Fast forward to the present day and the Premier League is an extraordinary success story, bringing many of the best players and coaches in the world to the English top flight and producing scintillating football for fans all over the world to enjoy. Long may it continue!