Premier League Betting Tips

Premier League LogoAs the big daddy of the English football world the Premier League draws the biggest crowds, the highest viewing figures and, of course, the most money. In this section we cover betting tips of every Premier League match day as well as outright winner bets on who will win the league.

Note: Match day coverage is posted a couple of days before the first game.

Premier League Matches - 10th & 11th November 2018

Date Time Channel Match Tip
10/11/2018 12:30 Sky Sports Cardiff v Brighton Both Teams to Score
10/11/2018 15:00 N/A Huddersfield v West Ham West Ham Win
10/11/2018 15:00 N/A Leicester v Burnley Leicester Win
10/11/2018 15:00 N/A Newcastle v Bournemouth Draw
10/11/2018 15:00 N/A Southampton v Watford Watford Win
10/11/2018 17:30 BT Sport Crystal Palace v Tottenham Tottenham to Win -1
11/11/2018 12:00 BT Sport Liverpool v Fulham Liverpool to Win -2
11/11/2018 14:15 Sky Sports Chelsea v Everton Chelsea Win
11/11/2018 16:30 N/A Arsenal v Wolves Arsenal to Win -1
11/11/2018 16:30 Sky Sports Man City v Man Utd Man City to Win -1

Manchester City beat Southampton 6-1 at the Etihad Stadium last Sunday to stay top of the pile in the Premier League. Chelsea moved into second spot with a 3-1 home win over Crystal Palace after Liverpool were held to a 1-1 draw by Arsenal. The top three remain unbeaten but the other “big” clubs are also starting to make their presence felt too.

At the other end, meanwhile, Huddersfield Town sealed a vital 1-0 win over Fulham on Monday to leapfrog the Cottagers in the table. Slavisa Jokanovic’s Fulham and Neil Warnock’s Cardiff City are joint bottom of the Premier League going into this weekend’s fixtures. Fulham prop up the table on goal difference and with a trip to Anfield ahead it seems unlikely things will be any better come Sunday afternoon.

Spurs to Win on the Road Again

Mauricio Pochettino takes his Tottenham Hotspur side to Selhurst Park this weekend to face Crystal Palace in Saturday’s late game in the Premier League. Palace, who are still searching for their first home win, will be desperate for all three points from this one. However, Spurs head into this London derby as the strong favourites.

Tottenham have the best away record in the division, winning six of their seven away matches so far. Since losing 2-1 to Inter Milan in the San Siro in a UEFA Champions League game back in September, the Lilywhites have won five and drawn one of their last six league and cup fixtures on the road.

The Eagles have been poor at home so far, and Spurs should leave Selhurst Park with a comfortable win on Saturday. Take a punt on Tottenham to win -1, which you can get at the tempting odds of 2/1.

Manchester Derby to Go City’s Way

Manchester City Etihad Stadium

Photo © P L Chadwick (cc-by-sa/2.0) (cropped)

The standout fixture taking place this weekend is the blockbuster Manchester derby between Pep Guardiola’s Man City and Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United at the Etihad Stadium. When these two bitter rivals last met, United came from two goals down at half time to secure a shock 3-2 win at the Etihad to rain on City’s title parade. The champions and current league leaders will be out for revenge in this one.

Pep’s Citizens have been in faultless form of late, winning each of their last six games across all competitions since drawing 0-0 with Liverpool at Anfield back in October. City have been frightening in front of goal recently, putting six past both Southampton and Shakhtar Donetsk in their last two outings.

That said, United head to the Etihad on the back of an outstanding result in the Champions League. On Wednesday night, Jose’s boys came from behind to beat Juventus in Turin, scoring two late goals to claim a shock 2-1 victory. That was without doubt Man Utd best result in Europe under Mourinho. The Red Devils are finding some form, winning all of their last three league and cup matches and slowly moving up the table.

United will make the short trip across Manchester in high spirits following their stunning win in Italy, but Man City should be too strong for Mourinho’s men at the Etihad. The home team to win -1 is nicely priced at evens.

Wins for the Reds & Blues This Weekend

Liverpool will be hoping to get back to winning ways after failing to win either of their last two. After drawing 1-1 with Arsenal last weekend, the Reds were shocked in the Champions League in midweek, losing 2-0 in Serbia to Red Star Belgrade. This Sunday, Jurgen Klopp’s men entertain struggling Fulham at Anfield. This should be an easy win for Liverpool, who will be glad to get back on home soil, so back the hosts to prevail -2 at 8/11.

Also on Sunday, Chelsea welcome Everton to Stamford Bridge. The Blues have made an excellent start to their campaign under Sarri, winning eight and drawing three of their opening 11 league fixtures. Meanwhile, the Toffees have been in good form under Marco Silva of late, picking up 12 points from the last 15 on offer in the Premier League. However, we fancy the home side to nick this one at the Bridge at 4/11.

That said, given Everton’s growing confidence we predict a tight game. The Toffees have a reasonable record at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea haven’t blown too many sides away yet this term. As such, for a longer return than the home win, take a look at Chelsea to win by exactly one goal, available at 9/4.

  • Cardiff v Brighton - Cardiff entertain Chris Hughton’s Brighton & Hove Albion at the Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday afternoon. After losing 1-0 at home to Leicester City last time out to drop back into the bottom three, the Bluebirds will be desperate for maximum points from this one. We can see this being an open game in South Wales as each side pushes for a win, so back both teams to score at 21/20.
  • Huddersfield v West Ham - David Wagner’s Huddersfield will go into Saturday’s clash with West Ham United on a high after securing their first win of the season against Fulham last Monday. Town lifted themselves off the bottom, but this will be another tricky test for the Terriers. We’re backing Manuel Pellegrini’s Hammers to come out on top (6/5) at the Kirklees Stadium.
  • Leicester v Burnley - Claude Puel’s Leicester host Sean Dyche’s Burnley at the King Power Stadium on Saturday. After last weekend’s win on an emotional day in South Wales, the Foxes, who are currently sitting in 10th, will be looking for another three points in this one. Back the Leicester win at 4/9 in what is sure to be a charged atmosphere for their first game at home since the helicopter crash.
  • Newcastle v Bournemouth - Rafa Benitez’s Newcastle United picked up their first win of the season last time out, beating Watford at St James’ Park. This weekend, the Magpies entertain in-form Bournemouth. Eddie Howe’s side have made an outstanding start to their season, and we can see the Cherries leaving Tyneside with a point this weekend. Back this to end all square at 9/4.
  • Southampton v Watford - Mark Hughes’ Southampton, who were beaten 6-1 at Man City last weekend, have made a poor start to their season, winning just once so far. Watford, meanwhile, have won six of their 11 games to sit in eighth spot. We can see the Hornets returning to winning ways this weekend after losing at Newcastle last Saturday. The Watford win is available at 19/10 and that’s a big price against a poor side.
  • Arsenal v Wolves - On Sunday afternoon, Unai Emery’s Arsenal host Nuno Espirito Santo’s Wolverhampton Wanderers at the Emirates Stadium. Since losing at Chelsea back in August, the Gunners have won seven and drawn two of their last nine in the Premier League. As for Wolves, they have lost their last three since winning 1-0 at Palace back in early October. Arsenal should win this one with ease, so put some money on the hosts to win -1 at 6/4.

Premier League Betting Strategy

For football betting strategies, and indeed betting strategies on any sport, to be successful, the punter must seek out ‘value bets’, that is to say bets for which the odds are greater than the actual probability of that event happening. We go into a lot more detail about this on our dedicated Football Betting Strategy section, but essentially finding value bets lies at the heart of making a profit from betting on football.

Finding value bets is often best done when you find out some information that the bookmaker is unaware of that could affect the accuracy of their odds. The problem is, when it comes to the Premier League, it is all but impossible to steal a march on the bookies when it comes to access to information about the top teams and players.

Information is Power, But is There Anything the Bookies Don’t Know?

Social Media Concept

There are so many news outlets, websites and social media sites generating masses of information and data about the top flight. To sift through every last scrap of available info about the Premier League, all of which instantly come into the public domain, would be a time consuming task.

Betting on the Premier League is big business for most bookmakers and they invest considerable resources to make sure their odds are right and they have as much information on their markets as is possible. It is, therefore, very difficult to get an edge on them. It is highly unlikely that you will be able to react to some crucial team news or a managerial sacking before the big bookies have adjusted their odds to take such news into account.

For instance, suppose Harry Kane suffers an injury in training ahead of a Tottenham match; if you were able get hold of that information before the bookies it is likely that you could get a great value bet for one of his understudies, Fernando Llorente or Son Heung-Min, for instance, in the first goalscorer market. In reality, unless you happen to be watching the training session in person and then get your bet on within minutes, the bookies are likely to change their odds before you find out about the injury.

The ‘Nothing To Play For’ Fallacy

Footballer Lying on Pitch on Talking on PhoneAs such, finding value bets on the Premier League can be more about analysing and identifying the bookies’ misjudgements of a given situation. For instance, it has been known for bookmakers to put too much stock on a team having ‘nothing to play for’.

Often towards the end of a Premier League season there are matches in which a mid-table side that can neither be relegated nor qualify for the Europa League will host a relegation-threatened side that is fighting for survival in the top flight. As we detail in our Football Strategy piece, it can often be the case that bookies will make the visiting side favourites despite them having been poor all season (indicated by the fact they are in the relegation dogfight in the first place). This could indicate a fine opportunity to grab some betting value by backing the home side.

Festive Frenzy

Festive Fixtures: Santa Holding a Football

Football fans love the hectic festive football frenzy when the games are coming thick and fast and the players become prone to mistakes and mishaps. It’s fair to say many managers don’t share the fans’ enthusiasm for so many games in such a short period of time.

From a betting perspective, though, this can be a good time to seek out some shock results. Boxing Day and New Year’s Day fixtures often throw up some surprises, and though it’s more likely due to player fatigue than festive excess, Man City away at Newcastle on a cold, blizzardy late-December night might just give you the chance to earn a few quid.

Generally the bookies will factor in weather conditions and so on, but so scared are they of overpricing the best sides in the land, it is often the case that if there are factors that play into the hands of their opponents, there is value to be had.

Using Statistics to Find Value

StatsAs well as information, statistics can be very useful when it comes to picking out winning bets. Whether you are focussing on average goals per game of a given side, statistics on a player’s shots to goals ratio or refereeing stats, it generally pays to delve into the facts and figures before placing your bets.

For instance, if you are inclined to bet on the number of yellow cards that will be shown in a given match, it really makes sense to check who the referee will be for the game and to look at their stats. All too often, punters focus on the teams and players, overlooking the fact that the referee is the man handing out the cards.

For instance, in the 2017-18 Premier League season, Jonathan Moss refereed 29 games and dished out a cool 107 yellow cards, an average of 3.69 per game. Kevin Friend, meanwhile, somewhat lived up to his amiable name by reaching for the yellow on just 46 occasions over the course of the 21 games in which he was the ref, an average of just 2.19 yellows per game.

Premier League 2017-2018 Yellow Cards Per Game By Referee

Yellow cards awarded per game in 2017-2018 Premier League season listed by referee.

Of course, as with most pieces of information relating to the Premier League, the bookies’ odds will no doubt take account of who is the referee of a given match. But refs can get injured too, so if you are on the ball and you see a ref pull a hamstring in a game on Saturday, and you know the next match in their schedule, there is a chance you could use this to your advantage.

Another statistic that could be worth investigating involves how teams score their goals. Again looking back to the 2017-18 season as an example, it is notable that none of Stoke, Newcastle and Burnley scored a single penalty during the season. As such, you clearly wouldn’t want to bet on a penalty to be scored if Burnley hosted Newcastle.

Conversely, and perhaps surprisingly, Crystal Palace scored a whopping eight times from the spot, something that a savvy punter might take advantage of if the Eagles faced another side who won (and scored) penalties more than most, for example Man City who scored six.

Of course, however much you study the available information, it’s really not easy getting any kind of edge over the bookies when betting on the Premier League and it is more a case of using the available statistics, taking account of trends, form and psychology, and having a little helping hand from Lady Luck when you place your bets.

Premier League Stats and Facts

Here we have a few facts and statistics about the Premier League, all of which are correct as of the start of the 2018-19 season.

  1. The real Big Six? – Many younger fans might have only ever known Manchester City as a Premier League side, but in reality there are only six sides who have played in every Premier League season… and City are not one of them. The real Big Six are: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and Everton!
  2. Mighty Man United – As of the start of the 2018-19 season, Manchester United are the side who have won the most Premier League titles with 13 in total. They have also won three-in-a-row twice (1998-99, 1999-2000, 2000-01 and 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09)
  3. Invincible Arsenal – Arsenal are the only side in Premier League history to go through a full season without losing a single match. During the 2003-04 season, Arsenal – then managed by Arsene Wenger – completed their 38 league matches with 26 wins, 12 draws and zero defeats, amassing a total of 90 points which saw them win the league by 11 points (Chelsea finished second, Man United third). That fantastic achievement formed part of Arsenal’s record 49-game unbeaten run in the Premier League that ran from 7 May 2003 to 24 October 2004.
  4. Oh Dear, Derby – Derby County had an absolute nightmare in the 2007-08 season. They started the campaign pretty badly under the stewardship of Billy Davies, but he was replaced in November by Paul Jewell. The former Wigan man didn’t do too well either. After 38 Premier League games, the Rams had won just one, with eight draws and a whopping 29 defeats. Their total of 11 points is the lowest in Premier League history by some margin and they also earned the fewest points away from home in a season: three!
  5. Travel Sickness – Derby aren’t the only side to struggle on their travels in the Premier League. They are one of six sides that has failed to win a single Premier League game away from home in a season. The full list is, as mentioned, Derby County (2007-08), along with Leeds United (1992-93), Coventry City (1999-2000), Wolverhampton Wanderers (2003-04), Norwich City (2004-05) and Hull City (2009-10)
  6. One Team To Shock Them All – Only six sides have won the Premier League title. Four of them will immediately spring to the minds of football fans: Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Blackburn Rovers, with the SAS attack partnership of Alan Shearer and Chris Sutton, won in the 1994-95 season, but that was before the real gulf in finances between the haves and have nots really took hold of English football. But there was the shock of all shocks in the 2015-16 season when 5000/1 shot Leicester City batted all and sundry aside to take the title, finishing 10 points clear of Arsenal with Spurs, Man City and Man United trailing in their wake.

A Brief History of the Beginning of the Premier League

It is no exaggeration to say that the Premier League changed football. Since it was founded on 20th February 1992 after the clubs in the Football League First Division decided to break away from the Football League, English top flight football has been catapulted into a global phenomenon. Now broadcast to a potential television audience of almost five billion people in over 600 million homes around the globe, the Premier League is now the most-watched sports league in the world.

How did it all Start?

The reason the Premier League came about was in part due to the fact that the old First Division had begun to lag behind Serie A in Italy and La Liga in Spain in terms of both average attendances and, crucially for the clubs, revenues. There was a sense of missed opportunity amongst many of the top clubs’ chairmen, that the potential earning power of English football was not being realised.

In 1990 representatives of the biggest clubs in the land (Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal and Everton) met with Greg Dyke, then the MD of London Weekend Television. At the meeting they discussed the possibility of a breakaway from the Football League as a mechanism to boost the incomes of the clubs.

Founder Members Agreement

After the conclusion of the 1990-91 season, The Founder Members Agreement, signed by the biggest clubs in English football, was put forward. This set out the principals of a new breakaway league in which the clubs could negotiate their own broadcasting and sponsorship rights without having to defer to the Football League.

The final piece of the jigsaw that led to the split from the Football League and the formation of the Premier League was BSkyB’s successful £304 million bid to purchase the broadcasting rights to show top flight matches exclusively for a five year period from the 1992-93 season.

This dwarfed previous broadcast rights packages and the clubs in the newly formed Premier League would benefit greatly in financial terms. Ironically, Dyke and his ITV broadcaster didn’t even get the highlights package (that going to the BBC) despite the future FA chief being instrumental in getting the whole Premier League show on the road in the first place.

The inaugural Premier League season saw 22 sides competing, with Sheffield United’s Brian Deane scoring the first goal of the new league in a 2-1 victory over Manchester United, who then went on to find the first ever Premier League title:

1992-1993 Premier League Table

1992-1993 Premier League Table (via Soccerbase)

Fast forward to the present day and the Premier League is an extraordinary success story, bringing many of the best players and coaches in the world to the English top flight and producing scintillating football for fans all over the world to enjoy. Long may it continue!