The Open Championship Betting Tips & Analysis – 20th July 2017

It’s been a cracking couple of weeks on the European Tour. They put together two wonderful events at quality links golf courses but there was always a feeling that the Irish and Scottish Opens were simply playing warm up for the big one, the Open Championship.

The third major of the year is always held at a links golf course and is the one time in the season that British fans get to see the world’s best golfers on their shores. As the name would suggest, the Open also gives golfers of all standards the chance to qualify so a handful of amateurs and players on the world’s smallest professional tours will be teeing it up alongside the likes of Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth.

The Course – Royal Birkdale

This year’s edition of the Open, the 146th in total, takes place at Royal Birkdale. The last time the Open took place at the Southport course in 2008 it was won by Padraig Harrington with a score of three over par. That shows just how difficult Birkdale can play when the coastal wind blows and fans of true links golf will be happy that it’s set to be gusty throughout the Open, especially over the weekend.

That’s good news for players who enjoy a challenging test of links golf, not such good news for those who arrive at Royal Birkdale struggling for form. The design of Birkdale is such that the test it sets out is amplified by tricky conditions. It is already an incredibly demanding challenge off the tee with bunkers in play on almost every shot from tee to green but it only becomes that much more challenging when players have to factor in gusty, unpredictable winds.

Those players who utilise a combination of clubs off the tee, manage to hit their spots and work well with their caddies to execute a plan will find they get scoring opportunities at Birkdale. It’s actually not too tough a course from the middle of the fairway. The greens are relatively flat (they can’t be too sloped or the wind would make putting unfair) and should prove easy to hit when the wind isn’t too bad. When it does get up, those who can scramble for par consistently will have an edge simply by keeping damaging scores off their card more regularly those who have questionable short games.

Who Will Win?

There’s a three way tie at the top of the betting with most bookies struggling to separate Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler. The first two are both major champions who have the game to go well at pretty much every track but if you’re going to support any of the favourites, Fowler is the one to back.

Like six of the last seven Open champions, Fowler warmed up for the week with an appearance at the Scottish Open. Speaking afterwards, Fowler sounded content with his game even though he just couldn’t get the birdie putts to drop on Sunday and so had to settle for a share of ninth place. At 28, Fowler cuts a mature figure on the golf course and may not have to wait much longer for his maiden win at a major.

It’s been nine years since the Open was last held at Royal Birkdale but many of the main protagonists in 2008 return this year with hopes of being in the mix come Sunday. The champion, Padraig Harrington (66/1 with Bet365) is playing some decent golf and appears to be in a good place mentally. 2008 runner up Ian Poulter (66/1 with BetVictor) is another who will have support but the man to back from that group is Henrik Stenson.

Along with Phil Mickelson, Stenson played one of the very best rounds of all time at the Open last year. In the end he finished three shots clear of Mickelson but was 14 strokes better off than third placed J.B. Holmes. Stenson also played some solid golf at Dundonald Links last week and while he didn’t threaten the top of the leaderboard, he looked free of the injury and form concerns that have dogged him this season. Famously dubbed ‘The Iceman’, Stenson won’t worry about the tag of being the defending champion at the Open and could just click at the perfect time to win the Open again at a very tempting 28/1 with Betfred.

Betting Tip – Henrik Stenson at 28/1 with Betfred

Outsiders & Each Way Tips

Branden Grace never really caught fire at the Scottish Open last week. However, the South African will be well aware that simply playing links golf the week before the Open has proven to be a massive help in recent years and he’ll turn up to Birkdale quietly confident about his chances. Grace is a previous winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and has never missed the cut at the Open so warrants each way support at 50/1 with Bet365.

Alex Noren is another 50/1 shot worthy of each way support. The Swede was caught on camera putting in the long hours on the range at Dundonald last week after missing the cut. That grind and links experience should stand him in good stead at Royal Birkdale as will his ability to win. He’s bagged six European Tour wins in a little over two years and can threaten the more fancied players this week.

While many players will be hoping for benign conditions in Southport, Brandt Snedeker wants the exact opposite. The American has a wonderful ability to keep scoring well in gusty conditions and for that reason could be worth an each way play at 90/1 with Ladbrokes. Finally, try a small stakes bet on Richard Bland at 500/1. He’s found winning a major barrier in his European Tour career but he played well at last week’s Scottish Open and could battle his way to contention in his first Open appearance since 1998.