Australian Open Betting Tips & Analysis – 16th January 2017

After a quick break from the court, the 2017 tennis season is about to get fully up and running. Just who will walk away with the top prizes at the Australian Open this month? There is a huge $3.7m (AUD) for the winner in the men’s and women’s singles, as well, as course, as the glory of landing the year’s first Grand Slam.

Andy Murray comes in to this tournament as world number 1, but can he maintain that against Novak Djokovic? The Serbian is aiming to regain his place at the top of men’s tennis, but that’s going to be a challenge. Meanwhile, we’re about to see potentially the most open women’s Grand Slam in years. Ahead of all the action in Melbourne, we’ve picked out some betting tips for you to take a look at.

Men’s Australian Open Betting Tips

  • Betting Tip – Novak Djokovic at 13/8 with Betfair
  • Outsider Tip – Milos Raonic at 20/1 with Sky Bet

The Australian Open is a pretty arduous task for any player, given the physical toll it takes. Playing on a faster surface during the warmest time of the year in Australia is demanding, especially when things go to five sets. That’s why it takes a special blend of talent and physicality to win Down Under. It’s also probably why, in the last 10 years here, we have seen just one finalist from outside the top 10 seeds, and just one winner from outside the top three. That doesn’t sound like great news for punters looking for long odds winners, but there’s still value here. And of course, predicting the winner is, in theory at least, that little bit easier.

The rise of Andy Murray hasn’t just been a boost to British pride. It’s probably had more of an effect on Novak Djokovic’s pre-tournament odds. He usually starts a Grand Slam as odds on favourite for the trophy, before even hitting a ball in anger. With the Scot now the new world number 1, the Serbian has seen his odds drift. He’s still favourite or with some bookies joint favourite, but Djokovic is great value at 13/8 with Betfair.

He showed he has an edge over Murray by beating him last week, and at that price you can make a handsome profit on a man who has won five of the last eight Slams. He had a poor 2016 by his crazy standards, especially at the end of the year, but the victory over his rival in Qatar showed he is back to his best.

We’ve addressed the reality that players outside the top three seeds don’t win here, so following that up with a 20/1 tip seems odd. However, Milos Raonic has pushed his way into the top three seeds for this tournament, capitalising on the drop of Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal. The Croatian isn’t near the level of the current big two, but he is capable of causing problems for them. He was a semi finalist here last year, and a runner up at Wimbledon, and we think he’s brilliantly priced at 20/1 with Sky Bet.

Alternative Bets

Realistically, everyone is expecting a Djokovic v Murray final, which should go a long way to settling the debate about who is the best player in the world right now. However, that might not go to plan. Murray has made plenty of finals in Melbourne, but he’s yet to win the trophy. His record here is solid, but there’s always a chance that someone catches him out along the way.

We’ve addressed the top three, but there are other dangers in the draw. The problem for men’s tennis right now is that there’s a big gulf between the top two and the rest. That has been the case for a while now, it was just overshadowed by those great years with the big four dominating everything. However, one young man who could bridge the gap is Austrian Dominic Thiem. He had an impressive start to 2016, and if he can improve in 2017, then he’s worth a look as a 100/1 outsider with Ladbrokes.

He’s not exactly a mega-odds pick, but Stan Wawrinka is our other outside tip here. He’s a 14/1 shot with Coral, so the bookies clearly fancy him more than Raonic. That’s because the Swiss player has won a Grand Slam in the past. He won here in 2014, and he’s won a Slam a year since. While wildly inconsistent, Wawrinka is a brilliant player on his day, and he could threaten again here. He has the power and temperament to trouble anyone and has to be respected in the betting.

Women’s Australian Open Betting Tips

  • Betting Tip – Angelique Kerber at 7/2 with Bet365
  • Outsider Tip – Johanna Konta at 40/1 with Betfair

Coming in to this tournament, Serena Williams is now out at 11/4 with Coral. That’s a huge price for the American given she’s been head and shoulders above the rest for a long, long while now. Maria Sharapova is still out with a ban, while Victoria Azarenka is pregnant and is going to be out for a while too.

That’s left this tournament wide open, making Angelique Kerber the effective favourite. Williams had a meek exit at the US Open last year, followed by a six month break and well below par return. Kerber may be a 7/2 shot with Bet365, but she’s clearly the best equipped to win here, aside from Serena. She made three Slam finals and the Olympic final last year. She won two of those majors, which makes her look like a great value pick here. Williams is waning and Kerber’s star is most certainly rising. We fancy 2017 will be the year when that reality is really made clear, starting here in Melbourne.

Johanna Konta is our second pick here, as she returns to her home from home of Australia. The Brit grew up here, so that helps explain her semi final run here last year. We think she can go one better 12 months on, after employing Wim Fissette. Fissette helped Kim Clijsters return to the top of the women’s game, and with a vacuum at the top she can certainly help Konta push on. At a huge price of 40/1 with Betfair, the Brit is worth a risk here.

Alternative Bets

It’s hard to know where is else to look in the women’s betting, with so many possibilities, but few stand-out performers. That should make for an exciting tournament, but it’s tough when it comes to picking a safe winner. There are a few outside alternatives, including 20-year-old Daria Kasatkina. She beat our main tip Kerber in style recently, and she’s well fancied for great things within the game. Already ranked 26th in the world, she’s great value at 66/1 with Betfair. She could press for a top 10 spot this season and has the tools to be a threat.

It’s also worth considering Agnieszka Radwanska, who is 25/1 with BetVictor to win here. She might be worth backing, just for the fact that she has managed to break her opponents’ serve in over 50% of games on this surface in the last year. That makes her hugely dangerous, and it points towards a possible run towards the final for the Pole.