Grand National Betting Guide

Grand National 2014For one Saturday a year the sport of horse racing takes centre stage with the British public. The multitude of office sweepstakes being run up and down the country and conversations centring on “are there any greys running?” and “which one has a female jockey?” are all sure signs that it is Grand National time once again.

All this hype and attention is entirely justified for what is one of the longest-running and most exciting horse races in the world. The unique course and fences make this a test unlike any other for the brave horses and jockeys who set out, over nearly four and a half miles, in pursuit of Aintree glory. A great spectacle in its own right it is nevertheless a little more exciting when you have a bet on it…

In honour of this great event we’ve compiled a guide to betting on the Grand National – including how to pick a horse, which horses you should watch out for and even which bookmakers you should use to place your bet.

Best Online Bookmakers for Betting on the Grand National

If you’re one of those people who only bets once a year on this race, chances are you might not know who you should be placing that bet with in order to get the most from your bet. Picking a bookmaker with the best odds, betting rules or offers can not only result in bigger winnings should your horse romp home first, but can even be the difference between winning and losing your bet.

  • TBD – We have our long term favourites but we always refresh our Grand National list each year to make sure that the odds, terms and rules haven’t changed since last time.

Introductory Free Bets (New Customers Only)

The Grand National is fairly unique in the horse racing world in that it attracts huge numbers of people who don’t normally bet. Because of the ‘one and done’ nature of many of the people looking to bet on the ‘National, a lot of the bookies withdraw their regular welcome bonuses for the day.

So, with that in mind, this next section covers betting sites that are offering some kind of free bet or bonus to new customers during the Grand National:

  • TBD – We should know what offers are available towards the end of the week leading up tot he Grand National. In the mean time, all of the normal welcome bonuses are currently available – see a list of these here.

In addition to introductory free bets listed above, there are also a number of offers that will be running specifically for the Grand National – we’ll cover these in our next section.

Betting Offers for Existing Customers

Whilst many of the bookies pull their welcome bonus during the GN, there is no shortage of special betting promotions for the race itself – including money back offers, enhanced places and NRNB. And unlike the introductory offers listed above, anybody can claim these – no just new customers.

Each Way Places & Best Odds Guaranteed

Before we get into the meat of the offers, we first want to mention three staples of the horse racing world. You may already be familiar with these, but just in case you’re not, here’s a quick explanation:

  • Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) – Place an ante-post bet and if your horse doesn’t run, you’ll get your money back. A slight variation of this is Non Runner Free Bet (NRFB) where you’ll receive a free bet if your horse doesn’t run, rather than the cash.
  • Best Odds Guaranteed – Take an early price and if the Starting Price (SP) of the horse is larger, you’ll get paid out at the bigger odds (of your horse wins).
  • Each Way Place Enhancements – Around big races the bookies often enhance the number of places that they pay for each way betting. The more places, the better chance you have of walking away a winner.

And here’s how our top bookies are stacking up:

  • TBD – This section will be updated nearer the time once the promotions are announced.

How to Choose a Horse

A traditional method of picking the winner of this so called lottery of a race is to close your eyes and stick a pin in the paper. You very well might land on the winner in this way but then again you might stab yourself in the finger or at the very least damage the kitchen table! Far better to use a little logic when selecting your horse.

Should your luck be in it is far more satisfying if you have actually picked your horse by some method other than pure chance. So, what should you look for? The success or otherwise of any horse depends largely on three factors, namely the ability of the horse, how good the trainer is and the quality of the jockey on board.

Ability to Jump a Fence

For the Grand National there are two main factors to look for in a potential winner. The first is the ability to jump a fence. The recent form figures of all runners are listed next their names in the paper. A simple method to remember here is that numbers are good, letters are bad. Any horse with F (Fell), U (Unseated) or P (Pulled Up) in its form figures should be avoided.

Ability to Run Long Distances

As this is such a marathon contest, the second factor to look for is the ability to run well for a long way. This is harder to spot at first glance but all the national newspapers provide a Grand National guide with comments on each of the runners. Look for any mention of a horse having won at three miles or further. Pay no heed to those who have done their winning at shorter than three miles as they are unlikely to have the necessary stamina. In terms of the age of the horse, nine or 10 years old is best and those carrying 11 stones or less in weight have a better record historically.

Top Trainers

The horse should always be the most important factor when making your selection but it does help if it is trained by one of the top men in the business. The best trainers have reached the top of the ladder largely through being better at their jobs than the others. They train the most winners over the duration of a season so it makes sense to have them on your side. Trainers to note are Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, David Pipe, Jonjo O’Neill, Donald McCain and Philip Hobbs from England and Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott from across the Irish Sea.

Top Jockeys

Finally, you want to have the right man on board. Being a jockey requires a high level of skill and determination and as with most things in life some jockeys simply have these attributes in greater supply than others. The Grand National course tests the ability of a jockey more than any other, so again it makes sense to have one of the best in the business on your side. The top jockeys available for this year’s race are AP McCoy, Ruby Walsh, Sam Twiston-Davies, Tom Scudamore, Jason Maguire, Richard Johnson and Aiden Coleman.

How the Grand National Works

Grand National fences

By Paul, Flickr

The Grand National is in many senses the biggest horse race in the UK and one of the most famous anywhere in the world. It is run at Aintree in Liverpool every year in April as part of a wider three-day festival. It is a long-distance handicap chase, indeed one of the longest races for thoroughbred horses in the world. Essentially this makes it the equine version of a marathon with hugely demanding fences thrown in for good measure.

A Long-Distance Handicap Chase

We will look at those fences more closely shortly but returning to that simple definition of it as a “long-distance handicap chase”, the chase part is short for steeplechase. This is one of the two disciplines that fall under the generic sphere of jumps racing, hurdles being the other. Hurdles feature smaller, more flexible obstacles that horses can often virtually plough through. In contrast, chases have more rigid fences that are significantly higher (at least four and a half feet) and generally more challenging. In addition, chases may feature water jumps and open ditches and are run over longer distances (between two miles and four and a half miles).

Distance

The Grand National is run over a distance of four miles, two and a half furlongs, meaning it is right at the top end of steeplechases in terms of distance. In addition, the fences, of which the horses face 30, are pretty much the highest and toughest in the sport. This makes the Grand National a race like no other.

Prize Money

In 2023, prize money stood at £1m in total, with the connections of the victorious horse taking exactly half of that. In order to land that half a million pounds, the incredible horses must get around two laps of the course. There are 16 separate obstacles on the National course, horses jumping the first 14 on both circuits before by-passing the last two (The Chair and The Water Jump) to head onto the famous, gruelling run-in of 494 yards to the line.

This distance of just under four and a half miles is covered in a time of around nine minutes and 20 seconds. The exact distance has changed over the years, whilst the number and nature of the obstacles have also varied. Throw in the fact that softer, muddier ground slows the horses significantly too, and comparisons between years do not tell the whole story.

Record Time

Nonetheless, the record time for the National is eight minutes and 47 seconds, achieved by Mr Frisk in 1990. The slowest was recorded by the aptly named (given the difficulty in predicting the winner) victor in the first-ever race, Lottery, all the way back in 1839. The course was very different in the first years of the National, whilst time-keeping, let alone records of those times, was less reliable, but Lottery took just under 15 minutes to get around by all accounts. Only twice this century has the winning horse’s time not begun with a nine (minutes) however.

April Fixture

The day, date and time of the race have changed over the years but for a long time it has taken place on the third and final day of a three-day meeting at Aintree. This means it is run on a Saturday in mid-April and in recent years has started at 5.15 pm. It moved to that time in 2016 to try and boost the TV audience, having previously been run at 4.15 pm which clashed with football and other sporting fixtures. It had previously run at 3 pm but was moved, again because of football, to 3.45 pm (and half-time), subsequently being put back to 4.10 pm and then 4.15 pm.

In keeping with all steeplechase races, horses do not begin in stalls as they often do in races on the flat, but instead behind a tape. The starter calls the jockeys forward and if everything goes smoothly the horses slowly make their way towards the tape, which then drops and the excitement begins!

How Many Horses Run?

For many years the maximum number of runners in the Grand National has been 40. However, back in 1929, a huge field of 66 runners made it to the starting line, that being the record number to have taken part. 40 remains a very large field though, far, far more than in the average race, and this high number of runners adds to the difficulty in predicting who will win.

Aside from the obvious point that there are more possible winners, a big field means that luck in running is more important. Horses can easily get boxed in, be hampered by other horses, especially at obstacles, or, in the worst-case scenario, be brought down if another horse falls in front of them.

This is why the field size has been limited to 40 and with the race always heavily oversubscribed we almost always see 40 horses run. That limit was introduced in 1984 but for a long time, in the race’s earlier years, far fewer horses actually took part. The record low was 10, in 1883, whilst in the half century or so prior to that the average field was around 20 strong.

How Many Horses Normally Finish?

Part of the reason the number of entrants grew in the 20th century was so few were finishing. In 1883 just six made it to the finish line but that 60% completion rate was actually quite high. In some years a sizeable majority of those that appeared at the start line would not make it to the end of the race. In 1928, just two horses managed to finish the race, the winner coming in at 100/1 and the second-placed horse miles behind having been remounted!

The most horses to ever finish in the Grand National was 23, this coming in 1984, the first year of the 40-horse limit. Comparing the modern race to ones that took place 30, 40 or even 100+ years ago is perhaps rather foolish though. So many changes have been made to improve the safety of horses and jockeys and so if we look at the last decade we see that an average of around 17 horses have finished the Grand National.

In 2022 and 2021, 15 made it to the finish line, with the lowest in this period being the 12 that came home in 2018, when late withdrawals meant there were only 38 runners and the going was very tough. The 2020 race saw 19 complete the race and this has been the most in the last 10 years, with the same number making it home on four occasions in this period.

Handicaps & Weight

Picking a winner

By Karen Blaha, Flickr

Racing pros will be familiar with the concepts of weights and handicaps but if the Grand National is one of the few times of the year that you take an interest in racing, you might only have a vague understanding at best. Perhaps you have heard of a horse being “top weight”, or another being “well handicapped” and are wondering whether these are good things or bad things?

What Is a Handicap?

As noted at the start of this article, the Grand National is a handicap contest. This means that the horses carry different weights so that, in the words of the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), “horses of varied ability (can) race competitively against each other”.

Horses are assigned a handicap rating, known as the Official Rating (OR) and the higher that mark, the more weight a horse will have to carry for a race. In this way, all horses are given, in theory at least, some chance of winning the race. Many contests are not handicaps and these allow us to see which horses are truly the best of the best with a more or less level playing field. However, handicap racing means that far more horses and connections can be involved in the sport in a competitive way. Handicaps also tend to make for more interesting and popular betting heats too as there is an extra layer for punters to try and unpick.

Once again deferring to the BHA, they state that the handicap is “a numeric representation of a horse’s form and, therefore, its perceived level of ability at any given time”. Handicaps are revised weekly based on the horses’ performance in races. Specialist BHA handicappers carry out this task using data analysis as well as their expertise and experience in the sport.

Weight of the Horse, Jockey & Kit

Usually, the weight a horse has to carry, which includes the jockey and their equipment, plus additional weight added inside the saddle as required, is directly related to their handicap. However, for the Grand National things work a little differently. For this unique contest the Head of Handicapping at the BHA can use their discretion and whilst they do not diverge too far from official ratings (the handicap), there are occasionally a few minor surprises.

The horse or horses that are considered to be the best, and most likely to win, all other things being equal, are given top weight. This means they carry the most weight and 11-10, which is to say 11 stone and 10 pounds. The other horses are then handicapped in relation to that.

Interestingly though, the weights are announced well before the race. In 2023, the weights were announced on 21st February, the National not taking place until 15th April. At that stage the final 40 are yet to be confirmed and many of the horses will run between the two dates, meaning that their OR could well change.

If a horse runs very well in the period between being allocated their Grand National weight and the big race, they could end up having to carry less weight than they “should”. Of course the opposite is also true. Either way, with 30 fences to jump and more than four miles to run, the weights can certainly make a big difference to the outcome of the Grand National.

The National Fences

Horse racing fence

By Carine06, Flickr

Those 30 fences are, individually and collectively, among the most famous in the sport of racing. Originally they were natural thorn hedges but now a mix of spruce branches is used, these cuttings coming from trees in the Lake District. These are, according to the Jockey Club “weaved into a plastic birch structure” and this makes them a little more forgiving than the fences of old.

Creating the Obstacles

The obstacles take three weeks to construct, with 16 lorry-loads of spruce branches used! The fences range in height from 4ft 6in (the same height as British gymnast Claudia Fragapane) to the tallest, The Chair (at 5ft 2in, akin to jumping over Kim Kardashian!). To make The Chair even more testing it sees a ditch of five feet before the fence and a raised landing area. Many of the fences have entered into popular culture, with obstacles such as Becher’s Brook (4ft 10in but seven and a half feet wide) and Foinavon (4ft 6in high and 3ft wide) known by many with only a passing interest in horse racing.

Fences & Brooks

The fences at Aintree are varied and testing in different ways. The Canal Turn, for example, which is just metres away from the Leeds-Liverpool canal, sees horses contend with an obstacle that is 5ft high, 7ft wide and is immediately followed by a 90-degree turn. Valentine’s Brook, taken as obstacles nine and 25, is a fence of similar proportions but has a brook of five and a half feet on the landing side.

As well as these well-known fences and those with brooks, horses also have to contend with a number of open ditch fences. The first of these comes early in the race too, as fence three on the first lap and then 19 on the last. The fence itself is five feet high and about three and a half feet wide but an open ditch in front of it measures 7ft in width, meaning the total obstacle the horses must jump is effectively well over 10ft.

As well as two more obstacles of this nature that come back-to-back, one with the ditch on the landing side, is the final jump of the first lap, the Water Jump. Here you will see horses jump over the fence and then, hopefully, over a stretch of water, before heading to the end of the first lap where they face the first 14 fences all over again!

What Happens If a Horse Falls?

Horse falls

By A.P.PHOTOGRAPHY., Flickr

The long distance, large field, and difficulty, not to mention quantity, of the fences, means that fallers are almost inevitable at the Grand National. As noted, the average number of finishers in recent years has been 17 (coincidentally that was how many finished in the 2023 race). This means that usually 23 horses do not make it to the finish but not all of those will be fallers.

There are a few different categories, or classifications, when it comes to those runners that do not make it all the way to the winning post. Including how they are denoted on future racecards, these are:

Fell (F)

A horse is a faller if it makes a mistake in trying to jump one of the Grand National fences and this results in the horse and jockey just about making it over the obstacle but both hitting the deck on the other side. Jockeys cannot remount their horses these days so this spells the end of their challenge.

Unseated (U)

Horses can unseat their rider, sending them to the deck, in flat races too due to a swerve, sudden change of direction or contact with another horse. However, it is more common in National Hunt racing and often occurs when a horse makes a mistake at a jump.

Whilst the horse clears the obstacle without coming to ground, the horse and/or jockey may become unbalanced due to a lesser collision with the fence or due to getting their stride wrong, sending the jockey to the turf.

Brought Down (B)

Luck in running plays a huge part in National success and sometimes a horse may fall through no fault of its own. If another horse falls just in front of it or jumps right across it at a fence, there may be nothing neither horse nor jockey can do to void being wiped out.

Refused (R)

Slightly confusingly, this can mean one of two different things. Typically it refers to a horse that simply stops, suddenly, at a jump, refusing to even try and clear it. This may result in the jockey being unseated too. Alternatively, it refers to times when a horse doesn’t even start a race. The horse might simply refuse to race right from the off, standing still as the field charges away. This may also be denoted as (L), meaning “left at the start”.

Pulled Up (P or PU)

The Grand National sees a large number of horses pulled up due to its gruelling nature and the fact that most of the field will have never raced over such a long distance before. If the jockey feels their horse has no chance of gaining a place, or that something isn’t right with the animal (for example it seems to have picked up an injury or just does not have any energy), they will pull up. In simple terms, though with no negative connotations, this basically means they give up and stop running, rather than continue and risk the animal’s health.

Slipped Up (S)

There are a few other similar, though less common, ways in which a horse may come a cropper and fail to finish at the Grand National. One of these is slipping, also known as “slipped up” (S), where quite simply the horse loses its footing on a flat section, usually due to poor ground. A horse may also be disqualified, and whilst this is a little different, it is still a non-finisher and a losing bet (usually, though not if it crosses the line first with a bookie who pays out on both that outcome and the official result).

Ran Out (O)

A horse may also take a “wrong turn” somewhere along the way, missing a fence or section of the course. If this happens they are classed as “Ran out” and their race is over (marked O) on a racecard. A related issue is instead marked C and this is for carried out. Here the horse is essentially forced off the course by another runner. This does not happen often and whilst no fault of the horse or jockey it still sees them end as a non-finisher and punters lose their cash.

What Happens to Bets?

Barring you having struck your bet with a betting site that had some form of money back or insurance promo, in any of the instances above, all bets on the horse to have fallen, unseated, been pulled up or whatever else, will be settled as losers. So, from a betting perspective all of these outcomes are the same. The only exception to this will relate to specific promos and the rare instance of a horse winning a race but subsequently being disqualified, as mentioned above.

Can a Horse with No Jockey Win a Race?

Horse with no jockey

By Paul, Flickr

In the Grand National it is very common to see a horse “running lose” or “running free”, as it is described when they are running without a jockey aboard. Such horses can be a major problem in the Grand National. Whilst they are pack animals that enjoy racing and running with other horses, without a jockey to guide them they are more likely to make unpredictable movements that can potentially hinder, bring down, or even carry out another horse.

Such horses may, for a time at least, lead races, even the Grand National. This makes many racing newbies wonder whether such horses can win a race. The answer is a simple no. For one thing, horses are handicapped by weight in the Grand National and this includes the very minor bulk of the wee person holding the reigns. A horse without a jockey has a major weight advantage, so cannot win.

That said, even in races that are not handicaps, the weight of the jockey remains a consideration. As such, the rules of racing are very clear that a horse without a jockey cannot win a race. So, sadly, if your horse unseats their rider at the first, that’s the end of your Grand National betting hopes for another year!

Key Grand National Trends

Grand National Horses

By Paul, Flickr

In a race like the Grand National, with so many possible winners, lots of punters look to trends to narrow the field down to a more manageable list of horses to consider more closely. Or you can just pick the one with the same name as your uncle. However, if you do want to consider trends, these are the key National stats you should be aware of based on the 31 runnings of the great race up to and including 2022.

Odds

Outsiders often do win the Grand National but nowhere near as often as some people might believe. Six of the last 31 winners were favourites or joint-favourites and with that often being at double-digit odds, backing the jolly may be the way to go. That said, 23 out of 31 came from outside the top three in the betting, meaning that almost 75% of the time the winner is likely to be available at very nice each way odds.

Age

The Grand National is open to horses aged seven years and upwards but is not often won by the older generation. 20 out of 31 have been taken by a horse no older than 10, with almost half (15) of those claimed by nine or 10 year olds.

Weight

This is a tough old race to slog a lot of weight around and 24 of the 31 winners over the aforementioned period have carried 10 stone 13 pounds or less. Changes to the race, chiefly the increasing quality of the horses, perhaps means this is less of a factor now but even so, any horse carrying 11 stone or more has to be a real cracker.

No Rust Please

One perhaps overlooked trend concerns when winners had their last run prior to the big one. Staying fresh for such a gruelling affair may seem logical but the stats suggest it pays to have a reasonably recent run in the bank. Only two of the past 31 winners of the National had not run within 55 days of claiming Aintree glory. Indeed, 24 of the 31 had run within the last 34 days.

Proven Stamina

Have we mentioned that this is a tough race? Few of the runners, unless they have previously run in the Grand National, will have ever been tested at this distance. However, 27 of the past 31 winners had all previously run a chase of three miles or more.

How to Pick a National Winner

Racehorse winner

By Diana Robinson, Flickr

There are many other trends and stats that some punters will turn to, for example those concerning Irish or British runners, individual trainers and also jockeys. Data is also available with regards to how winners fared in their previous race, their official rating, how many past wins they had scored, whether or not they appeared at the Cheltenham Festival before heading north and whether or not they have ever faced (and conquered) the National fences.

Looking at all of the many stats and weighting more recent trends, over the past 10 years, more strongly, our suggestion for Grand National glory is to:

  1. Back an eight or nine year old
  2. Back an Irish-bred horse
  3. Back a National newbie
  4. Back a horse that has not fallen or unseated more than twice in their career
  5. Back a horse to have run within 34 days